Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-12-04 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ICE LEGEND, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with STAND UP second and LIGHT OF WANSHI third. The 2.0 favourite STAND UP finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ICE LEGEND BO/H/TT 1.08.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung 10 17.0 1-1/4
2 10 STAND UP S De Sousa · F C Lor 7 2.0 1-1/4
3 3 LIGHT OF WANSHI B/TT Z Purton · W Y So 4 5.5 3-1/4
4 6 FLYING BONUS P2 Y L Chung · C H Yip 12 25.0 3-1/2
5 7 SMILING COLLECTOR V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 8 27.0 3-3/4
6 4 SPONTANEOUS B H Bowman · P C Ng 11 9.1 4
7 1 CALL ME TEDDY TT C L Chau · C W Chang 5 9.8 4-3/4
8 5 BEAUTY CHAMP H-/P-/SR2/XB2/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 20.0 4-3/4
9 12 MIRACLES B M Chadwick · K L Man 2 16.0 7
10 8 ACE TALENT TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 21.0 8-1/4
11 9 WAYFOONG LEGEND CP1/SR1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes 9 62.0 9-1/2
12 11 BLAZING SUN H/P1/XB1/TT1 L Currie · J Richards 3 144.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ICE LEGEND2. STAND UP+1.25L3. LIGHT OF WANSHI+3.25L4. FLYING BONUS+3.5L5. SMILING COLLECTOR+3.75L6. SPONTANEOUS+4L7. CALL ME TEDDY+4.75L8. BEAUTY CHAMP+4.75L9. MIRACLES+7L10. ACE TALENT+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick STAND UP (19.6%) finished 2nd — the winner ICE LEGEND was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 STAND UP 19.6% 5.11 2
2 3 LIGHT OF WANSHI 17.5% 5.73 3
3 5 BEAUTY CHAMP 9.6% 10.40 8
4 7 SMILING COLLECTOR 9.4% 10.60 5
5 4 SPONTANEOUS 8.6% 11.63 6
6 8 ACE TALENT 7.3% 13.72 10
7 2 ICE LEGEND 6.9% 14.48 1
8 12 MIRACLES 6.8% 14.62 9
9 1 CALL ME TEDDY 6.2% 16.11 7
10 11 BLAZING SUN 4.3% 23.20 12
11 6 FLYING BONUS 2.2% 45.58 4
12 9 WAYFOONG LEGEND 1.6% 63.66 11
STAND UPLIGHT OF WANSHIBEAUTY CHAMPSMILING COLLECTORSPONTANEOUSACE TALENTICE LEGEND — wonMIRACLESCALL ME TEDDYBLAZING SUNFLYING BONUSWAYFOONG LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 172.5

PLACE

2 33.5

3 20

10 11.5

QUINELLA

2,10 150

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 105

2,10 65.5

3,10 35.5

FORECAST

2,10 426

TIERCE

2,10,3 2,887

TRIO

2,3,10 288

FIRST 4

2,3,6,10 1,572

QUARTET

2,10,3,6 47,637

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,12/2,3,10 13,136

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 39.5

3RD DOUBLE

12/2 505

12/10 18