Sha Tin · 2022-12-04 · 16:38
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-04 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MARADO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with YOUNG VICTORY second and GOOD NEWS third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite CASA LEGEND finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MARADO Wire to wire B 1.21.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 12 | 4.7 | N |
| 2 | 7 | YOUNG VICTORY Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · W Y So | Y L Chung | W Y So | 1 | 5.4 | N |
| 3 | 1 | GOOD NEWS Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 5 | 5.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 13 | CASA LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 13 | 4.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | SUPER HIGHWAY B-/H/V1/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 11 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | NOBLE STEED Closed strongly L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 2 | 20.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | BLISSFUL STAR Closed strongly V/TT S De Sousa · K H Ting | S De Sousa | K H Ting | 10 | 8.6 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | NUNCHUKS TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 3 | 22.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | WIN WIN Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 24.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | VUKAN B/XB/TT C Wong · J Richards | C Wong | J Richards | 8 | 52.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 14 | HO HO JUNIOR B1 H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 6 | 197.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | STAR OF YUEN LONG B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 14 | 88.0 | 13 |
| 13 | 6 | BEAU GOSSE CP L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 4 | 58.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | GOLDEN FAIRY B/XB L Currie · A T Millard | L Currie | A T Millard | 7 | 241.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | YOUNG VICTORY | 15.0% | 6.68 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | BLISSFUL STAR | 13.5% | 7.39 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | MARADO | 12.8% | 7.80 | 1 |
| 4 | 13 | CASA LEGEND | 10.3% | 9.68 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | SUPER HIGHWAY | 10.3% | 9.69 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | GOOD NEWS | 9.7% | 10.30 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | NOBLE STEED | 7.9% | 12.70 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | NUNCHUKS | 5.6% | 17.91 | 8 |
| 9 | 5 | WIN WIN | 4.2% | 24.07 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | BEAU GOSSE | 3.7% | 26.84 | 13 |
| 11 | 12 | VUKAN | 3.2% | 30.82 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | HO HO JUNIOR | 1.5% | 67.61 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | STAR OF YUEN LONG | 1.5% | 67.93 | 12 |
| 14 | 9 | GOLDEN FAIRY | 0.8% | 130.22 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 47
PLACE
1 18.5
2 19.5
7 18.5
QUINELLA
2,7 151
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 61.5
1,7 54
2,7 57
FORECAST
2,7 233
TIERCE
2,7,1 1,630
TRIO
1,2,7 297
FIRST 4
1,2,7,13 250
QUARTET
2,7,1,13 5,860
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 25
A2 —
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
5/2 123.5
5/7 57