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Sha Tin · 2022-12-04 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-04 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MARADO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with YOUNG VICTORY second and GOOD NEWS third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite CASA LEGEND finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 MARADO Wire to wire B 1.21.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 12 4.7 N
2 7 YOUNG VICTORY Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · W Y So 1 5.4 N
3 1 GOOD NEWS Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 5 5.2 1-3/4
4 13 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 13 4.1 2-1/4
5 11 SUPER HIGHWAY B-/H/V1/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 11 13.0 2-1/2
6 8 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly L Hewitson · K W Lui 2 20.0 3-3/4
7 4 BLISSFUL STAR Closed strongly V/TT S De Sousa · K H Ting 10 8.6 4
8 3 NUNCHUKS TT K H Chan · C Fownes 3 22.0 7
9 5 WIN WIN Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 9 24.0 7
10 12 VUKAN B/XB/TT C Wong · J Richards 8 52.0 7-1/2
11 14 HO HO JUNIOR B1 H T Mo · D J Hall 6 197.0 9-3/4
12 10 STAR OF YUEN LONG B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 14 88.0 13
13 6 BEAU GOSSE CP L Ferraris · D J Whyte 4 58.0 14-1/4
14 9 GOLDEN FAIRY B/XB L Currie · A T Millard 7 241.0 15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MARADO2. YOUNG VICTORY+0.05L3. GOOD NEWS+1.75L4. CASA LEGEND+2.25L5. SUPER HIGHWAY+2.5L6. NOBLE STEED+3.75L7. BLISSFUL STAR+4L8. NUNCHUKS+7L9. WIN WIN+7L10. VUKAN+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick YOUNG VICTORY (15.0%) finished 2nd — the winner MARADO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 YOUNG VICTORY 15.0% 6.68 2
2 4 BLISSFUL STAR 13.5% 7.39 7
3 2 MARADO 12.8% 7.80 1
4 13 CASA LEGEND 10.3% 9.68 4
5 11 SUPER HIGHWAY 10.3% 9.69 5
6 1 GOOD NEWS 9.7% 10.30 3
7 8 NOBLE STEED 7.9% 12.70 6
8 3 NUNCHUKS 5.6% 17.91 8
9 5 WIN WIN 4.2% 24.07 9
10 6 BEAU GOSSE 3.7% 26.84 13
11 12 VUKAN 3.2% 30.82 10
12 14 HO HO JUNIOR 1.5% 67.61 11
13 10 STAR OF YUEN LONG 1.5% 67.93 12
14 9 GOLDEN FAIRY 0.8% 130.22 14
YOUNG VICTORYBLISSFUL STARMARADO — wonCASA LEGENDSUPER HIGHWAYGOOD NEWSNOBLE STEEDNUNCHUKSWIN WINBEAU GOSSEVUKANHO HO JUNIORSTAR OF YUEN LONGGOLDEN FAIRY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 47

PLACE

1 18.5

2 19.5

7 18.5

QUINELLA

2,7 151

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 61.5

1,7 54

2,7 57

FORECAST

2,7 233

TIERCE

2,7,1 1,630

TRIO

1,2,7 297

FIRST 4

1,2,7,13 250

QUARTET

2,7,1,13 5,860

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 25

A2

A3

7TH DOUBLE

5/2 123.5

5/7 57