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Sha Tin · 2022-12-04 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-04 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AMAZING VICTORY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by L Ho, won by 1-1/2, with CALIFORNIA REDWOOD second and LET'S DO IT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite A PAL finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly H 1.21.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · L Ho 13 9.1 1-1/2
2 8 CALIFORNIA REDWOOD Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 11.0 1-1/2
3 14 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly K H Chan · D J Hall 10 18.0 1-3/4
4 2 A PAL Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 1.7 2-1/4
5 6 HAPPY TOGETHER Closed strongly L Ferraris · R Gibson 5 86.0 4
6 10 ALL RICHES Led early CP S De Sousa · P F Yiu 9 7.4 4-1/4
7 4 PARTERRE Y L Chung · A T Millard 12 11.0 4-1/2
8 9 CASA COSMO Closed strongly B1/XB1/TT1 C Wong · J Richards 14 142.0 6-3/4
9 7 SAMARKAND H1 C L Chau · P C Ng 7 101.0 6-3/4
10 5 GOODBAN BANBANBANG Closed strongly TT1 H Bentley · C S Shum 11 238.0 7
11 13 TRAVEL GOLF SR/TT1 V Borges · C H Yip 4 149.0 9-3/4
12 11 GLOBAL HARMONY CP L Hewitson · D A Hayes 8 18.0 10
13 1 IVY LEAGUE SR1/TT1 L Currie · D J Whyte 3 157.0 16-3/4
14 12 JAZZ CLUB B C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 22.0 28-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING VICTORY2. CALIFORNIA REDWOOD+1.5L3. LET'S DO IT+1.75L4. A PAL+2.25L5. HAPPY TOGETHER+4L6. ALL RICHES+4.25L7. PARTERRE+4.5L8. CASA COSMO+6.75L9. SAMARKAND+6.75L10. GOODBAN BANBANBANG+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick A PAL (25.0%) finished 4th — the winner AMAZING VICTORY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 A PAL 25.0% 4.00 4
2 10 ALL RICHES 19.0% 5.26 6
3 3 AMAZING VICTORY 14.7% 6.80 1
4 4 PARTERRE 7.8% 12.81 7
5 8 CALIFORNIA REDWOOD 6.9% 14.47 2
6 11 GLOBAL HARMONY 6.0% 16.55 12
7 14 LET'S DO IT 5.3% 19.03 3
8 7 SAMARKAND 3.7% 26.96 9
9 1 IVY LEAGUE 3.3% 30.30 13
10 9 CASA COSMO 2.9% 34.98 8
11 5 GOODBAN BANBANBANG 2.2% 46.12 10
12 13 TRAVEL GOLF 1.2% 80.88 11
13 12 JAZZ CLUB 1.2% 86.72 14
14 6 HAPPY TOGETHER 0.9% 112.33 5
A PALALL RICHESAMAZING VICTORY — wonPARTERRECALIFORNIA REDWOODGLOBAL HARMONYLET'S DO ITSAMARKANDIVY LEAGUECASA COSMOGOODBAN BANBANBANGTRAVEL GOLFJAZZ CLUBHAPPY TOGETHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 91.5

PLACE

3 24

8 29

14 35

QUINELLA

3,8 417.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 108.5

3,14 150.5

8,14 168.5

FORECAST

3,8 1,406

TIERCE

3,8,14 6,660

TRIO

3,8,14 928

FIRST 4

2,3,8,14 421

QUARTET

3,8,14,2 23,564

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 33.5

8TH DOUBLE

2/3 302.5

2/8 127