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Sha Tin · 2022-12-24 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER HIGHWAY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with MULTISUPER second and GOLDEN BULL third. The 2.2 favourite MULTISUPER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 SUPER HIGHWAY H/V/TT 1.09.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 11 9.9 N
2 6 MULTISUPER XB- L Hewitson · P F Yiu 7 2.2 N
3 1 GOLDEN BULL TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 4.1 1
4 12 TRUST ME B/H H Bentley · C H Yip 14 73.0 2-1/2
5 11 SMART LEADER B/XB/TT H Bowman · W Y So 5 17.0 2-3/4
6 4 I GIVE H-/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 6 25.0 3-1/4
7 13 NORDIC COMBINED B R Maia · R Gibson 9 43.0 3-1/2
8 5 INNO TECH WINNER H T Mo · T P Yung 3 285.0 4-1/4
9 2 COMPASSION SUPER B/TT1 M F Poon · K L Man 1 53.0 4-3/4
10 7 ROMANTIC LAOS TT1 C Y Ho · J Richards 8 25.0 5
11 9 STRATHPEFFER H1/SR1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 12 270.0 5-1/2
12 3 ALLGREEKTOME TT L Currie · D A Hayes 2 4.8 6-1/2
13 10 SPEEDY FORTUNE A Hamelin · J Size 4 63.0 7-3/4
14 8 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 13 251.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER HIGHWAY2. MULTISUPER+0.05L3. GOLDEN BULL+1L4. TRUST ME+2.5L5. SMART LEADER+2.75L6. I GIVE+3.25L7. NORDIC COMBINED+3.5L8. INNO TECH WINNER+4.25L9. COMPASSION SUPER+4.75L10. ROMANTIC LAOS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLDEN BULL (33.0%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER HIGHWAY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GOLDEN BULL 33.0% 3.03 3
2 6 MULTISUPER 10.6% 9.41 2
3 3 ALLGREEKTOME 8.9% 11.21 12
4 14 SUPER HIGHWAY 7.3% 13.69 1
5 7 ROMANTIC LAOS 6.9% 14.54 10
6 11 SMART LEADER 6.9% 14.57 5
7 13 NORDIC COMBINED 5.1% 19.64 7
8 4 I GIVE 4.6% 21.92 6
9 10 SPEEDY FORTUNE 3.6% 27.75 13
10 5 INNO TECH WINNER 3.5% 28.27 8
11 2 COMPASSION SUPER 3.4% 29.60 9
12 12 TRUST ME 2.8% 35.36 4
13 9 STRATHPEFFER 2.2% 45.07 11
14 8 ROYAL AGILITY 1.2% 83.85 14
GOLDEN BULLMULTISUPERALLGREEKTOMESUPER HIGHWAY — wonROMANTIC LAOSSMART LEADERNORDIC COMBINEDI GIVESPEEDY FORTUNEINNO TECH WINNERCOMPASSION SUPERTRUST MESTRATHPEFFERROYAL AGILITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 99.5

PLACE

1 16

6 13.5

14 23.5

QUINELLA

6,14 107.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 28

1,14 68

6,14 37

FORECAST

14,6 369

TIERCE

14,6,1 1,473

TRIO

1,6,14 143

FIRST 4

1,6,12,14 1,040

QUARTET

14,6,1,12 27,638

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

12/6 30.5

12/14 782

3 PICK 1

A2 27.5

A1

A3