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Sha Tin · 2022-12-24 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-24 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PACKING TREADMILL, ridden by H T Mo and trained by K W Lui, won by HD, with FANTASTIC TREASURE second and KEEFY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite KEEFY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.35.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 PACKING TREADMILL Closed strongly SR 1.35.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · K W Lui 1 5.6 HD
2 4 FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 6 16.0 HD
3 3 KEEFY K C Leung · F C Lor 13 2.8 1-1/2
4 6 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B H N Wong · F C Lor 4 22.0 1-1/2
5 9 BEAUTYVERSE Closed strongly H1/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 3.3 2
6 13 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly M L Yeung · K L Man 11 44.0 3-1/4
7 1 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly CP/TT R Maia · C S Shum 2 42.0 3-1/2
8 14 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly V Borges · W Y So 12 75.0 3-3/4
9 8 THE ROCK C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 55.0 4
10 12 C P BRAVE TT H Bentley · A T Millard 14 79.0 4-1/4
11 7 CELESTIAL POWER V M F Poon · F C Lor 5 14.0 4-1/2
12 5 SAVAQUIN A Hamelin · J Size 9 27.0 5-1/4
13 11 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 10 19.0 5-1/4
14 2 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL B-/CP1 L Currie · J Size 8 39.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING TREADMILL2. FANTASTIC TREASURE+0.2L3. KEEFY+1.5L4. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+1.5L5. BEAUTYVERSE+2L6. FIND MY LOVE+3.25L7. BUTTERFIELD+3.5L8. TIANCHI MONSTER+3.75L9. THE ROCK+4L10. C P BRAVE+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTYVERSE (27.3%) finished 5th — the winner PACKING TREADMILL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 BEAUTYVERSE 27.3% 3.66 5
2 3 KEEFY 18.4% 5.42 3
3 10 PACKING TREADMILL 16.6% 6.01 1
4 5 SAVAQUIN 5.8% 17.38 12
5 11 CALIFORNIA TEN 5.3% 18.94 13
6 7 CELESTIAL POWER 4.4% 22.98 11
7 6 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 4.2% 23.99 4
8 8 THE ROCK 4.1% 24.56 9
9 4 FANTASTIC TREASURE 3.5% 28.53 2
10 14 TIANCHI MONSTER 3.4% 29.43 8
11 1 BUTTERFIELD 2.4% 41.02 7
12 2 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 2.3% 42.56 14
13 12 C P BRAVE 1.7% 59.84 10
14 13 FIND MY LOVE 0.6% 156.65 6
BEAUTYVERSEKEEFYPACKING TREADMILL — wonSAVAQUINCALIFORNIA TENCELESTIAL POWERALL FOR ST PAUL'STHE ROCKFANTASTIC TREASURETIANCHI MONSTERBUTTERFIELDEXCELLENT PROPOSALC P BRAVEFIND MY LOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 22

PLACE

1 17

4 12

9 22.5

QUINELLA

1,4 43

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 22.5

1,9 62.5

4,9 34.5

FORECAST

4,1 58

TIERCE

4,1,9 321

TRIO

1,4,9 103

FIRST 4

1,4,9,13 234

QUARTET

4,1,9,13 1,859

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 17

A3

8TH DOUBLE

12/1 19.5

12/4 41