Sha Tin · 2022-12-24 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. COMPASSION SPIRIT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K L Man, won by 1-3/4, with RUN RUN BUDDY second and FIRE BALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite RED TITAN finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.21.78

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	COMPASSION SPIRIT Closed strongly B 1.21.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K L Man	H Bowman	K L Man	8	135 lb	8.0	1-3/4
2	10	RUN RUN BUDDY Closed strongly CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	2	127 lb	32.0	1-3/4
3	12	FIRE BALL H Bentley · C H Yip	H Bentley	C H Yip	3	123 lb	10.0	2
4	5	PROUD DRAGON Closed strongly V K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	12	131 lb	16.0	2-1/2
5	14	REGENT GLORY Closed strongly CP- L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	14	118 lb	7.7	2-1/2
6	7	SOLAR PARTNER TT1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu	A Hamelin	P F Yiu	10	129 lb	6.2	3
7	6	SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly V/XB C Y Ho · K H Ting	C Y Ho	K H Ting	5	130 lb	8.1	3-1/4
8	8	INFINITE POWER Led early CP M F Poon · P C Ng	M F Poon	P C Ng	1	125 lb	8.8	3-1/2
9	11	IRON WILL Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · C S Shum	R Maia	C S Shum	6	125 lb	187.0	3-1/2
10	3	RED BRICK FIGHTER B K H Chan · D J Hall	K H Chan	D J Hall	11	128 lb	42.0	4-1/4
11	4	RED TITAN H-/TT Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	13	132 lb	3.5	4-3/4
12	13	SOARING TOWER Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So	V Borges	W Y So	9	120 lb	50.0	8-1/2
13	9	OUTPACER B M L Yeung · D J Whyte	M L Yeung	D J Whyte	4	127 lb	210.0	33-1/4
14	2	LEATHER VANGUARD L Currie · T P Yung	L Currie	T P Yung	7	134 lb	24.0	40-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick RED TITAN (18.4%) finished 11th — the winner COMPASSION SPIRIT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	RED TITAN	18.4%	5.43	11	3.5
2	6	SMILING COLLECTOR	10.2%	9.83	7	8.1
3	5	PROUD DRAGON	9.8%	10.20	4	16.0
4	12	FIRE BALL	7.8%	12.85	3	10.0
5	7	SOLAR PARTNER	7.6%	13.12	6	6.2
6	1	COMPASSION SPIRIT	7.6%	13.14	1	8.0
7	10	RUN RUN BUDDY	7.4%	13.51	2	32.0
8	8	INFINITE POWER	7.0%	14.39	8	8.8
9	3	RED BRICK FIGHTER	6.4%	15.74	10	42.0
10	2	LEATHER VANGUARD	5.3%	18.93	14	24.0
11	13	SOARING TOWER	5.1%	19.78	12	50.0
12	14	REGENT GLORY	4.6%	21.61	5	7.7
13	11	IRON WILL	1.9%	51.67	9	187.0
14	9	OUTPACER	1.0%	102.39	13	210.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 80

PLACE

1 23.5

10 98

12 29.5

QUINELLA

1,10 1,664

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 475.5

1,12 106

10,12 453

FORECAST

1,10 3,393

TIERCE

1,10,12 21,617

TRIO

1,10,12 3,465

FIRST 4

1,5,10,12 8,034

QUARTET

1,10,12,5 195,737

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,14/1,10,12 49,440

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 24.5

3RD DOUBLE

14/1 892.5

14/10 645

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