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Sha Tin · 2022-12-24 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-24 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BOYS PARTY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with JOY MASTER second and THIS IS CHARISMA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite SUNNY BABY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.35.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 BOYS PARTY Closed strongly SR1 1.35.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 11 6.5 N
2 14 JOY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 3 11.0 N
3 10 THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly V/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 5 14.0 N
4 4 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 8 8.4 1/2
5 3 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly CP2 Z Purton · D A Hayes 12 4.1 1
6 2 STAR OF GLORY Led early B K H Chan · C W Chang 9 8.0 1-1/4
7 5 YOUNG EXPLORER Closed strongly B/H V Borges · K H Ting 10 93.0 1-1/2
8 13 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly V C Y Ho · C Fownes 13 11.0 2-1/2
9 7 PRIDE OF DRAGON V1/TT R Maia · J Richards 4 16.0 2-3/4
10 8 SHINY TWO Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · P F Yiu 14 52.0 2-3/4
11 9 WINNING STEED B/TT- H Bowman · C H Yip 7 6.7 3-1/4
12 1 RUN DES RUN TT C Wong · T P Yung 1 27.0 3-1/2
13 6 NEW ASIA ADVANCE B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 2 123.0 8
14 11 TURF BRILLIANT B K C Leung · L Ho 6 24.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BOYS PARTY—2. JOY MASTER+0.05L3. THIS IS CHARISMA+0.05L4. GO GO SIXTEEN+0.5L5. SUNNY BABY+1L6. STAR OF GLORY+1.25L7. YOUNG EXPLORER+1.5L8. DAILY BEAUTY+2.5L9. PRIDE OF DRAGON+2.75L10. SHINY TWO+2.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RUN DES RUN (15.6%) finished 12th — the winner BOYS PARTY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 RUN DES RUN 15.6% 6.40 12
2 3 SUNNY BABY 13.9% 7.17 5
3 13 DAILY BEAUTY 12.3% 8.14 8
4 9 WINNING STEED 8.8% 11.37 11
5 2 STAR OF GLORY 8.4% 11.86 6
6 12 BOYS PARTY 7.9% 12.66 1
7 4 GO GO SIXTEEN 7.7% 13.03 4
8 11 TURF BRILLIANT 5.8% 17.20 14
9 8 SHINY TWO 5.1% 19.72 10
10 10 THIS IS CHARISMA 4.0% 24.82 3
11 7 PRIDE OF DRAGON 3.8% 26.44 9
12 5 YOUNG EXPLORER 2.6% 38.07 7
13 14 JOY MASTER 2.5% 39.72 2
14 6 NEW ASIA ADVANCE 1.5% 66.48 13
RUN DES RUNSUNNY BABYDAILY BEAUTYWINNING STEEDSTAR OF GLORYBOYS PARTY — wonGO GO SIXTEENTURF BRILLIANTSHINY TWOTHIS IS CHARISMAPRIDE OF DRAGONYOUNG EXPLORERJOY MASTERNEW ASIA ADVANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 65

PLACE

10 43

12 23

14 37

QUINELLA

12,14 397.5

QUINELLA PLACE

10,12 181.5

10,14 252

12,14 145

FORECAST

12,14 738

TIERCE

12,14,10 6,987

TRIO

10,12,14 2,486

FIRST 4

4,10,12,14 2,426

QUARTET

12,14,10,4 48,696

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/12 421

7/14 262

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 20.5

← Race 1 Race 3 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99