沙田 · 2022-12-24 · 14:31
第 4場
2022-12-24沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由H Bowman策騎、K L Man訓練的COMPASSION SPIRIT勝出，贏出1-3/4。RUN RUN BUDDY獲得亞軍；FIRE BALL獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.5倍大熱門RED TITAN跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | COMPASSION SPIRIT 後段發力 B 1.21.78 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 8 | 8.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | RUN RUN BUDDY 後段發力 CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 2 | 32.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | FIRE BALL H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 3 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | PROUD DRAGON 後段發力 V K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 12 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 14 | REGENT GLORY 後段發力 CP- L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 14 | 7.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | SOLAR PARTNER TT1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 10 | 6.2 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | SMILING COLLECTOR 後段發力 V/XB C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 5 | 8.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | INFINITE POWER 早段領放 CP M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 1 | 8.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | IRON WILL 後段發力 B/TT R Maia · C S Shum | R Maia | C S Shum | 6 | 187.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 11 | 42.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | RED TITAN H-/TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 13 | 3.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | SOARING TOWER 後段發力 B V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 9 | 50.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | OUTPACER B M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 4 | 210.0 | 33-1/4 |
| 14 | 2 | LEATHER VANGUARD L Currie · T P Yung | L Currie | T P Yung | 7 | 24.0 | 40-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | RED TITAN | 18.4% | 5.43 | 11 |
| 2 | 6 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 10.2% | 9.83 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | PROUD DRAGON | 9.8% | 10.20 | 4 |
| 4 | 12 | FIRE BALL | 7.8% | 12.85 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | SOLAR PARTNER | 7.6% | 13.12 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 7.6% | 13.14 | 1 |
| 7 | 10 | RUN RUN BUDDY | 7.4% | 13.51 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | INFINITE POWER | 7.0% | 14.39 | 8 |
| 9 | 3 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 6.4% | 15.74 | 10 |
| 10 | 2 | LEATHER VANGUARD | 5.3% | 18.93 | 14 |
| 11 | 13 | SOARING TOWER | 5.1% | 19.78 | 12 |
| 12 | 14 | REGENT GLORY | 4.6% | 21.61 | 5 |
| 13 | 11 | IRON WILL | 1.9% | 51.67 | 9 |
| 14 | 9 | OUTPACER | 1.0% | 102.39 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 80
PLACE
1 23.5
10 98
12 29.5
QUINELLA
1,10 1,664
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 475.5
1,12 106
10,12 453
FORECAST
1,10 3,393
TIERCE
1,10,12 21,617
TRIO
1,10,12 3,465
FIRST 4
1,5,10,12 8,034
QUARTET
1,10,12,5 195,737
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,14/1,10,12 49,440
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 24.5
3RD DOUBLE
14/1 892.5
14/10 645