沙田 · 2022-12-24 · 16:06
第 7場
2022-12-24沙田第7場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、P C Ng訓練的MARADO勝出，贏出1-1/4。WINNER METHOD獲得亞軍；MAJESTIC COLOUR獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | MARADO 後段發力 B 1.21.44 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 5 | 2.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | WINNER METHOD 後段發力 TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 9 | 6.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | MAJESTIC COLOUR 早段領放 V1 H W Lai · F C Lor | H W Lai | F C Lor | 7 | 17.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | GOLDEN ARTIE H1 R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 4 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 14 | LET'S DO IT 後段發力 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 6.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | ERIMO 後段發力 B K C Leung · J Size | K C Leung | J Size | 6 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | MASTER TORNADO 後段發力 K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 12 | 21.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | MASTER HERO XB/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 10 | 35.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | PACKING HURRICANE TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 12.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | IVY LEAGUE SR-/B1/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 1 | 208.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SETANTA B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | KASA PAPA 後段發力 TT A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 14 | 73.0 | 6 |
| 13 | 9 | YEABOI C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 11 | 343.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 10 | CHARMANDER B/XB/TT L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 13 | 123.0 | 8-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | MARADO | 35.2% | 2.84 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | ERIMO | 13.5% | 7.39 | 6 |
| 3 | 14 | LET'S DO IT | 8.2% | 12.14 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | GOLDEN ARTIE | 7.9% | 12.61 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | WINNER METHOD | 7.1% | 14.18 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | SETANTA | 6.2% | 16.15 | 11 |
| 7 | 13 | PACKING HURRICANE | 4.7% | 21.36 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | MASTER HERO | 4.5% | 22.00 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | CHARMANDER | 3.5% | 28.23 | 14 |
| 10 | 7 | KASA PAPA | 2.6% | 38.99 | 12 |
| 11 | 4 | MAJESTIC COLOUR | 2.5% | 39.22 | 3 |
| 12 | 8 | MASTER TORNADO | 2.1% | 47.34 | 7 |
| 13 | 2 | IVY LEAGUE | 1.0% | 100.12 | 10 |
| 14 | 9 | YEABOI | 0.8% | 119.02 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 192
PLACE
1 54.5
2 18.5
5 23.5
QUINELLA
1,2 623.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 197.5
1,5 251
2,5 84.5
FORECAST
1,2 1,030
TIERCE
1,2,5 7,579
TRIO
1,2,5 1,159
FIRST 4
1,2,5,12 2,622
QUARTET
1,2,5,12 79,536
全部彩池（另 3 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,9,13/1,2,5 175,890
3 PICK 1
A3 32.5
A2 —
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
4/1 1,037
4/2 38.5