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Happy Valley · 2023-02-15 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 2200m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 2.16.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT 2.16.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 3.5 1-1/2
2 0 CABLE SPEED Led early TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 15.0 1-1/2
3 0 LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly V/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 6 6.0 2
4 0 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So 11 40.0 3-3/4
5 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 2 8.0 5
6 0 WAH MAY LUCK B/TT H Bentley · Y S Tsui 3 24.0 5-1/2
7 0 JUBILATION V Z Purton · L Ho 12 5.1 5-3/4
8 0 SKY GEM C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 7.3 7
9 0 SIMPLE DOCTRINE XB C Wong · C W Chang 5 95.0 7-1/4
10 0 FORTUNE PATROL B/H/XB H T Mo · A T Millard 1 29.0 9
11 0 BARON ZEE B/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 8 15.0 10-3/4
12 0 JOLLY FOREVER XB/B2/TT K C Leung · W Y So 9 15.0 15-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-15 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WONDER YEARS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with CABLE SPEED second and LOYAL AMBITION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER YEARS—2. CABLE SPEED+1.5L3. LOYAL AMBITION+2L4. OWNERS' STAR+3.75L5. FORTUNE TRIPLE+5L6. WAH MAY LUCK+5.5L7. JUBILATION+5.75L8. SKY GEM+7L9. SIMPLE DOCTRINE+7.25L10. FORTUNE PATROL+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LOYAL AMBITION (20.2%) finished 3rd — the winner WONDER YEARS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LOYAL AMBITION 20.2% 4.95 3
2 0 WONDER YEARS 17.2% 5.83 1
3 0 JUBILATION 15.4% 6.51 7
4 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE 8.6% 11.65 5
5 0 WAH MAY LUCK 8.0% 12.47 6
6 0 SKY GEM 7.1% 14.00 8
7 0 BARON ZEE 6.9% 14.51 11
8 0 CABLE SPEED 5.1% 19.70 2
9 0 FORTUNE PATROL 3.7% 26.71 10
10 0 JOLLY FOREVER 3.7% 26.91 12
11 0 OWNERS' STAR 2.5% 40.17 4
12 0 SIMPLE DOCTRINE 1.6% 61.05 9
LOYAL AMBITIONWONDER YEARS — wonJUBILATIONFORTUNE TRIPLEWAH MAY LUCKSKY GEMBARON ZEECABLE SPEEDFORTUNE PATROLJOLLY FOREVEROWNERS' STARSIMPLE DOCTRINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 35.5

PLACE

1 15

4 23.5

10 43.5

QUINELLA

1,10 239

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 53.5

1,10 85.5

4,10 145

FORECAST

1,10 486

TIERCE

1,10,4 2,753

TRIO

1,4,10 425

FIRST 4

1,2,4,10 3,542

QUARTET

1,10,4,2 43,983

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 283.5

1/10 196

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 24