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Happy Valley · 2023-02-15 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SEE U AGAIN, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with WIND SPEEDER second and SUNNY AND GOLD third. The 3.0 favourite VICTORY SCHOLARS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SEE U AGAIN B-/TT- 1.09.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum 2 6.6 SH
2 5 WIND SPEEDER C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 5 27.0 SH
3 11 SUNNY AND GOLD B2/TT R Maia · C H Yip 8 43.0 1-1/4
4 1 SUPER VINCE XB/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 10 14.0 1-1/2
5 3 VICTORY SCHOLARS V Y L Chung · C Fownes 1 3.0 2-1/4
6 4 SIGHT HERO B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 11 16.0 2-1/4
7 2 STAR ASCENSION TT H Bowman · D J Hall 4 3.1 3-1/2
8 10 ISLAND SHINE TT- M Chadwick · P F Yiu 3 13.0 4-1/4
9 8 WOOD ON FIRE CP-/H-/V2/TT H T Mo · L Ho 6 49.0 5-1/2
10 9 HAPPILY FRIENDS V V Borges · W Y So 7 56.0 6-3/4
11 6 INFINITE POWER B/SR H Bentley · P C Ng 12 9.3 7
12 12 SIX BEST FRIENDS B-/TT M F Poon · K L Man 9 101.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEE U AGAIN2. WIND SPEEDER+0.1L3. SUNNY AND GOLD+1.25L4. SUPER VINCE+1.5L5. VICTORY SCHOLARS+2.25L6. SIGHT HERO+2.25L7. STAR ASCENSION+3.5L8. ISLAND SHINE+4.25L9. WOOD ON FIRE+5.5L10. HAPPILY FRIENDS+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick VICTORY SCHOLARS (26.0%) finished 5th — the winner SEE U AGAIN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 VICTORY SCHOLARS 26.0% 3.84 5
2 2 STAR ASCENSION 15.6% 6.39 7
3 4 SIGHT HERO 11.2% 8.95 6
4 7 SEE U AGAIN 10.9% 9.21 1
5 6 INFINITE POWER 7.8% 12.83 11
6 1 SUPER VINCE 7.5% 13.34 4
7 10 ISLAND SHINE 4.9% 20.38 8
8 8 WOOD ON FIRE 4.6% 21.71 9
9 9 HAPPILY FRIENDS 3.5% 28.34 10
10 12 SIX BEST FRIENDS 2.8% 35.99 12
11 11 SUNNY AND GOLD 2.7% 37.27 3
12 5 WIND SPEEDER 2.5% 40.16 2
VICTORY SCHOLARSSTAR ASCENSIONSIGHT HEROSEE U AGAIN — wonINFINITE POWERSUPER VINCEISLAND SHINEWOOD ON FIREHAPPILY FRIENDSSIX BEST FRIENDSSUNNY AND GOLDWIND SPEEDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 66.5

PLACE

5 63

7 24.5

11 84.5

QUINELLA

5,7 993

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 269

5,11 711.5

7,11 323.5

FORECAST

7,5 1,724

TIERCE

7,5,11 31,163

TRIO

5,7,11 6,847

FIRST 4

1,5,7,11 15,555

QUARTET

7,5,11,1 357,127

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,10/5,7,11 1,367,319

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 34.5

A1

4TH DOUBLE

10/5 270

10/7 288.5