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Happy Valley · 2023-02-15 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SMILING TIME, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with EIGHTEEN PALMS second and PROUD DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite EIGHTEEN PALMS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT 1.40.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K H Ting 8 8.8 SH
2 7 EIGHTEEN PALMS Closed strongly CP Z Purton · C S Shum 1 2.2 SH
3 5 PROUD DRAGON Closed strongly V K Teetan · C Fownes 12 15.0 3/4
4 9 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 7 5.1 1-1/4
5 11 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 10 15.0 2-1/4
6 12 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · C H Yip 11 33.0 2-1/4
7 8 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA B/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 9 41.0 2-3/4
8 1 WORLD FAMOUS Led early B K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 11.0 3-1/4
9 2 COPARTNER ERA B C Y Ho · W Y So 2 20.0 3-1/4
10 4 EMERGING H/TT H Bentley · R Gibson 3 70.0 3-3/4
11 6 WIND N GRASS B/XB/TT L Currie · J Richards 4 54.0 4-1/2
12 10 REGENT GLORY M Chadwick · D A Hayes 6 9.9 8-3/4
0 BELL OF HAPPINESS H T Mo · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMILING TIME2. EIGHTEEN PALMS+0.1L3. PROUD DRAGON+0.75L4. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+1.25L5. GALLANT HERO+2.25L6. FLASH FAMOUS+2.25L7. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+2.75L8. WORLD FAMOUS+3.25L9. COPARTNER ERA+3.25L10. EMERGING+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick EIGHTEEN PALMS (39.2%) finished 2nd — the winner SMILING TIME was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 EIGHTEEN PALMS 39.2% 2.55 2
2 9 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 10.4% 9.60 4
3 3 SMILING TIME 10.4% 9.63 1
4 10 REGENT GLORY 6.7% 14.92 12
5 11 GALLANT HERO 6.5% 15.35 5
6 5 PROUD DRAGON 6.3% 15.86 3
7 12 FLASH FAMOUS 5.9% 17.06 6
8 2 COPARTNER ERA 5.4% 18.55 9
9 8 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 3.1% 32.58 7
10 6 WIND N GRASS 2.2% 45.48 11
11 1 WORLD FAMOUS 2.1% 46.87 8
12 4 EMERGING 1.8% 54.43 10
EIGHTEEN PALMSLONDON LUCKYSTARSMILING TIME — wonREGENT GLORYGALLANT HEROPROUD DRAGONFLASH FAMOUSCOPARTNER ERAKUNGFUMASTER PANDAWIND N GRASSWORLD FAMOUSEMERGING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 88

PLACE

3 25.5

5 40

7 11.5

QUINELLA

3,7 110

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 166.5

3,7 45

5,7 85.5

FORECAST

3,7 342

TIERCE

3,7,5 3,041

TRIO

3,5,7 544

FIRST 4

3,5,7,9 495

QUARTET

3,7,5,9 16,216

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A3

A2

5TH DOUBLE

7/3 699.5

7/7 38.5