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Happy Valley · 2023-02-15 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-15 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NIMBLE NIMBUS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with GALLANT WAKING second and STAR CONTACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite JUMBO LEGEND finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly V/TT 1.39.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 10 4.9 1-1/4
2 1 GALLANT WAKING Closed strongly XB Z Purton · K W Lui 8 5.5 1-1/4
3 12 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 5.1 1-1/4
4 8 JUMBO LEGEND H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 3.4 1-3/4
5 6 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT K C Leung · L Ho 11 39.0 2-1/2
6 2 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT L Currie · J Size 2 24.0 2-3/4
7 3 COMET SPLENDIDO Closed strongly CP/TT H N Wong · C S Shum 9 35.0 3-1/2
8 10 MASTER TORNADO XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 11.0 3-3/4
9 11 BEAUTY TURN H Bentley · P C Ng 1 50.0 4-1/4
10 9 GIFT OF LIFELINE B C L Chau · A T Millard 3 20.0 4-1/2
11 7 LOYAL BABY Led early TT M F Poon · F C Lor 7 12.0 5-1/4
12 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY CP1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 133.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NIMBLE NIMBUS2. GALLANT WAKING+1.25L3. STAR CONTACT+1.25L4. JUMBO LEGEND+1.75L5. HAPPY DAILY+2.5L6. ZONE D+2.75L7. COMET SPLENDIDO+3.5L8. MASTER TORNADO+3.75L9. BEAUTY TURN+4.25L10. GIFT OF LIFELINE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JUMBO LEGEND (20.2%) finished 4th — the winner NIMBLE NIMBUS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 JUMBO LEGEND 20.2% 4.94 4
2 1 GALLANT WAKING 17.9% 5.58 2
3 12 STAR CONTACT 12.0% 8.34 3
4 4 NIMBLE NIMBUS 9.7% 10.35 1
5 2 ZONE D 7.6% 13.17 6
6 10 MASTER TORNADO 6.6% 15.12 8
7 7 LOYAL BABY 6.6% 15.17 11
8 9 GIFT OF LIFELINE 6.0% 16.58 10
9 6 HAPPY DAILY 5.5% 18.21 5
10 3 COMET SPLENDIDO 5.4% 18.64 7
11 11 BEAUTY TURN 1.4% 71.19 9
12 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY 1.1% 89.03 12
JUMBO LEGENDGALLANT WAKINGSTAR CONTACTNIMBLE NIMBUS — wonZONE DMASTER TORNADOLOYAL BABYGIFT OF LIFELINEHAPPY DAILYCOMET SPLENDIDOBEAUTY TURNATOMIC BEAUTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 49

PLACE

1 21

4 18

12 18

QUINELLA

1,4 126

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 53.5

1,12 58

4,12 51.5

FORECAST

4,1 303

TIERCE

4,1,12 1,120

TRIO

1,4,12 198

FIRST 4

1,4,8,12 138

QUARTET

4,1,12,8 3,991

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 21

A3

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,7/1,4,12 7,511

8TH DOUBLE

7/1 47.5

7/4 327.5

SIX UP

3,10/5,7/3,7/8,10/6,7/1,4 16,765

10/7/3/10/7/4 587,270

3 [P F Yiu]

3 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

10/7/1 642

10/7/4 3,667