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Happy Valley · 2023-02-15 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SPLENDID LIVING, ridden by H Bentley and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3, with FEARLESS FIRE second and READY PLAYER ONE third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SPLENDID LIVING Wire to wire TT 1.39.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · P F Yiu 6 3.5 3
2 3 FEARLESS FIRE B/XB L Currie · D A Hayes 10 33.0 3
3 2 READY PLAYER ONE Closed strongly CP-/XB1/B2/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 2 4.4 3-1/4
4 12 THETA HEDGE Closed strongly B-/H/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 3 7.5 3-3/4
5 1 SAMARKAND H/XB/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 11 19.0 3-3/4
6 6 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 9 14.0 4
7 11 AI ONE H/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 1 15.0 4-1/2
8 8 SURREALISM Closed strongly B M Chadwick · R Gibson 7 19.0 4-3/4
9 5 NUNCHUKS TT K Teetan · C Fownes 5 13.0 4-3/4
10 4 DEAR SIBLING Closed strongly B K C Leung · K L Man 12 91.0 5-1/4
11 9 HERCULES B-/TT C Wong · C H Yip 4 81.0 8-1/2
12 7 SUNNY DELIGHT TT H Bowman · C S Shum 8 4.8 35-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPLENDID LIVING2. FEARLESS FIRE+3L3. READY PLAYER ONE+3.25L4. THETA HEDGE+3.75L5. SAMARKAND+3.75L6. KUNG FU TEA+4L7. AI ONE+4.5L8. SURREALISM+4.75L9. NUNCHUKS+4.75L10. DEAR SIBLING+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SPLENDID LIVING (15.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SPLENDID LIVING 15.6% 6.41 1
2 2 READY PLAYER ONE 14.5% 6.90 3
3 7 SUNNY DELIGHT 11.6% 8.65 12
4 12 THETA HEDGE 11.5% 8.69 4
5 5 NUNCHUKS 9.7% 10.32 9
6 6 KUNG FU TEA 8.1% 12.38 6
7 3 FEARLESS FIRE 6.8% 14.66 2
8 1 SAMARKAND 6.7% 14.99 5
9 8 SURREALISM 6.5% 15.32 8
10 11 AI ONE 5.5% 18.33 7
11 9 HERCULES 2.1% 48.20 11
12 4 DEAR SIBLING 1.5% 65.43 10
SPLENDID LIVING — wonREADY PLAYER ONESUNNY DELIGHTTHETA HEDGENUNCHUKSKUNG FU TEAFEARLESS FIRESAMARKANDSURREALISMAI ONEHERCULESDEAR SIBLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 35.5

PLACE

2 19

3 65.5

10 17.5

QUINELLA

3,10 629.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 233

2,10 39

3,10 188.5

FORECAST

10,3 1,175

TIERCE

10,3,2 7,020

TRIO

2,3,10 764

FIRST 4

2,3,10,12 1,414

QUARTET

10,3,2,12 40,879

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 24.5

3RD DOUBLE

11,12/3 156.5

11,12/10 145