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Happy Valley · 2023-02-15 · 21:47

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SON PAK FU, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-3/4, with ISLAND SURPRISE second and FLAMING PASSION third. The 2.6 favourite RIGHTEOUS ARION finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SON PAK FU BO 1.10.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 3 11.0 1-3/4
2 8 ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 10 29.0 1-3/4
3 6 FLAMING PASSION TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 11.0 1-3/4
4 7 A AMERIC TE SPECSO H Bowman · J Size 5 5.7 2
5 2 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 4 2.6 2-1/4
6 1 RATTAN KINGDOM B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 6 3.2 2-3/4
7 12 INSPIRING CITY M L Yeung · D A Hayes 12 90.0 3-1/4
8 3 CALL ME TEDDY TT K C Leung · C W Chang 7 60.0 5-1/2
9 9 VALHALLA B/XB/TT L Currie · C Fownes 11 43.0 5-3/4
10 4 BRILLIANT LIFE B H Bentley · C H Yip 8 41.0 5-3/4
11 11 CORDYCEPS ONE B/H R Maia · K W Lui 9 20.0 6-1/2
12 5 DASHING GLORY TT1 H T Mo · L Ho 2 67.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SON PAK FU2. ISLAND SURPRISE+1.75L3. FLAMING PASSION+1.75L4. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+2L5. RIGHTEOUS ARION+2.25L6. RATTAN KINGDOM+2.75L7. INSPIRING CITY+3.25L8. CALL ME TEDDY+5.5L9. VALHALLA+5.75L10. BRILLIANT LIFE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RIGHTEOUS ARION (24.0%) finished 5th — the winner SON PAK FU was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 RIGHTEOUS ARION 24.0% 4.17 5
2 1 RATTAN KINGDOM 22.5% 4.45 6
3 7 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 16.7% 5.98 4
4 10 SON PAK FU 10.3% 9.67 1
5 8 ISLAND SURPRISE 4.8% 20.68 2
6 6 FLAMING PASSION 4.4% 22.87 3
7 4 BRILLIANT LIFE 4.0% 25.20 10
8 11 CORDYCEPS ONE 3.9% 25.35 11
9 9 VALHALLA 2.9% 34.84 9
10 5 DASHING GLORY 2.6% 37.91 12
11 3 CALL ME TEDDY 2.3% 43.98 8
12 12 INSPIRING CITY 1.6% 63.32 7
RIGHTEOUS ARIONRATTAN KINGDOMA AMERIC TE SPECSOSON PAK FU — wonISLAND SURPRISEFLAMING PASSIONBRILLIANT LIFECORDYCEPS ONEVALHALLADASHING GLORYCALL ME TEDDYINSPIRING CITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 114

PLACE

6 32

8 57

10 28.5

QUINELLA

8,10 1,082.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 313

6,10 132.5

8,10 243

FORECAST

10,8 1,616

TIERCE

10,8,6 15,197

TRIO

6,8,10 3,031

FIRST 4

6,7,8,10 2,511

QUARTET

10,8,6,7 66,174

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 20.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,7/6,8,10 166,040

6TH DOUBLE

3/8 450.5

3/10 779

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,7,11/3,5,7/Any Combination 86,193