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Happy Valley · 2023-04-19 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly 1.49.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 5 3.7 2
2 0 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B M Chadwick · W Y So 3 6.3 2
3 0 FOXHUNTER WAY Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 11.0 2-1/2
4 0 CABLE SPEED Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C W Chang 2 4.3 3
5 0 RING BELLS B/XB/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 6 9.8 3-3/4
6 0 DAILY BEAUTY V H Bowman · C Fownes 11 18.0 4
7 0 FORTUNE WINNER XB/TT V Borges · R Gibson 12 32.0 4-1/4
8 0 SMILING FACE Closed strongly B-/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 9.4 4-1/2
9 0 SPLENDID STAR P- A Badel · L Ho 1 13.0 4-1/2
10 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui 8 14.0 4-3/4
11 0 GOLDEN FAIRY B-/XB R Maia · A T Millard 9 61.0 5-3/4
12 0 LEISURE AND GOLD Led early B-/E-/XB- Y L Chung · C H Yip 7 49.0 5-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-19 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. GALLANT HERO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 2, with OWNERS' STAR second and FOXHUNTER WAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT HERO—2. OWNERS' STAR+2L3. FOXHUNTER WAY+2.5L4. CABLE SPEED+3L5. RING BELLS+3.75L6. DAILY BEAUTY+4L7. FORTUNE WINNER+4.25L8. SMILING FACE+4.5L9. SPLENDID STAR+4.5L10. SUPERB DADDY+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CABLE SPEED (24.8%) finished 4th — the winner GALLANT HERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CABLE SPEED 24.8% 4.03 4
2 0 GALLANT HERO 22.0% 4.54 1
3 0 FOXHUNTER WAY 11.9% 8.39 3
4 0 OWNERS' STAR 10.3% 9.69 2
5 0 SPLENDID STAR 6.2% 16.18 9
6 0 SMILING FACE 5.1% 19.78 8
7 0 RING BELLS 4.8% 20.63 5
8 0 DAILY BEAUTY 4.8% 20.78 6
9 0 SUPERB DADDY 4.2% 24.03 10
10 0 LEISURE AND GOLD 2.6% 38.05 12
11 0 GOLDEN FAIRY 1.7% 59.22 11
12 0 FORTUNE WINNER 1.5% 64.64 7
CABLE SPEEDGALLANT HERO — wonFOXHUNTER WAYOWNERS' STARSPLENDID STARSMILING FACERING BELLSDAILY BEAUTYSUPERB DADDYLEISURE AND GOLDGOLDEN FAIRYFORTUNE WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 37

PLACE

1 15.5

5 20

7 30.5

QUINELLA

1,5 119.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 44

1,7 82

5,7 87

FORECAST

1,5 177

TIERCE

1,5,7 1,415

TRIO

1,5,7 377

FIRST 4

1,5,7,8 153

QUARTET

1,5,7,8 3,555

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 23.5