Happy Valley · 2023-04-19 · 22:19
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-19 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SIXTH GENERATION, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by J Richards, won by 4, with HELENE WISDOM STAR second and PERFECT TO GREAT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite PERFECT TO GREAT finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 9 | 4.0 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 10 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly SR/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 6 | 3.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | BLISSFUL STAR V/TT K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 4 | 6.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER B L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 1 | 7.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | FEARLESS FIRE B/XB Y L Chung · D A Hayes | Y L Chung | D A Hayes | 11 | 28.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H/XB1 M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 12 | 47.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | STRATHPEFFER H/SR A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 8 | 61.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | PEAK TO PEAK Closed strongly B2/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 7 | 9.9 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | TELECOM CHEETAH B/XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 3 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | SPEEDSTAR Led early B K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 5 | 44.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | SUPER MAGIC B C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 2 | 32.0 | 30-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SIXTH GENERATION | 21.0% | 4.77 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER | 13.1% | 7.65 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | BLISSFUL STAR | 12.3% | 8.15 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 | SPEEDSTAR | 9.5% | 10.50 | 11 |
| 5 | 7 | TELECOM CHEETAH | 8.9% | 11.26 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | HELENE WISDOM STAR | 8.6% | 11.59 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | PERFECT TO GREAT | 8.2% | 12.26 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | PEAK TO PEAK | 6.3% | 15.92 | 9 |
| 9 | 3 | FEARLESS FIRE | 5.9% | 16.88 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | BORN THE SAME DAY | 2.9% | 34.08 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | STRATHPEFFER | 2.0% | 50.78 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | SUPER MAGIC | 1.4% | 71.52 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 40.5
PLACE
1 17
4 28
6 14.5
QUINELLA
1,4 172.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 66
1,6 37.5
4,6 74.5
FORECAST
1,4 300
TIERCE
1,4,6 814
TRIO
1,4,6 184
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 188
QUARTET
1,4,6,2 3,020
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 30.5
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
7/1 71
7/4 24