Happy Valley · 2023-04-19 · 22:52
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NORDIC DRAGON, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with BRAVE STAR second and LUCKY EIGHT third. The 2.0 favourite ALLGREEKTOME finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | NORDIC DRAGON TT 1.09.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 7 | 7.6 | N |
| 2 | 6 | BRAVE STAR XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 4.5 | N |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY EIGHT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 2 | 5.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | BEAUTY TYCOON H/PC V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 30.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | SEIZING THE MOMENT B M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 8 | 49.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | ELON E/P S De Sousa · J Size | S De Sousa | J Size | 3 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | GALLANT CROWN B/TT- R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 6 | 100.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | ALLGREEKTOME TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 1 | 2.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SAKEWIN CP Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 9 | 16.0 | 11-3/4 |
| — | 10 | WAKA WAKA A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | ALLGREEKTOME | 37.2% | 2.69 | 8 |
| 2 | 3 | LUCKY EIGHT | 21.6% | 4.63 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | BRAVE STAR | 18.7% | 5.36 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | NORDIC DRAGON | 6.2% | 16.11 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | BEAUTY TYCOON | 4.8% | 20.86 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | ELON | 4.8% | 21.02 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | SAKEWIN | 3.1% | 31.79 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | SEIZING THE MOMENT | 2.5% | 39.34 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | GALLANT CROWN | 1.1% | 92.76 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 76
PLACE
3 16
5 20.5
6 13
QUINELLA
5,6 160.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 50.5
3,6 35.5
5,6 47.5
FORECAST
5,6 271
TIERCE
5,6,3 1,277
TRIO
3,5,6 228
FIRST 4
1,3,5,6 300
3,4,5,6 559
QUARTET
5,6,3,1 4,251
5,6,3,4 7,562
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 26.5
A1 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,6/3,5,6 4,646
8TH DOUBLE
1/5 397.5
1/6 18.5
SIX UP
1/3/10/7/1/5 236,092
1,4/3,5/5,10/3,7/1,4/5,6 3,443
2 [K W Lui] —
3 [C Y Ho] —
TREBLE
7/1/5 879
7/1/6 42