Happy Valley · 2023-04-19 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 8 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-19 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. VIVA HUNTER, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by N, with MEANINGFUL STAR second and WINNING DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite STAR CONTACT finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.39.92

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly TT 1.39.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	7	120 lb	6.9	N
2	1	MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	3	132 lb	3.8	N
3	2	WINNING DRAGON Led early H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	5	122 lb	22.0	1/2
4	6	UP AND UP Closed strongly TT1 L Hewitson · C S Shum	L Hewitson	C S Shum	4	123 lb	16.0	1
5	4	STAR CONTACT CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes	Z Purton	D A Hayes	1	124 lb	1.8	1-1/4
6	3	SAVVY KINGMAN B1 A Badel · F C Lor	A Badel	F C Lor	6	127 lb	16.0	1-1/2
7	5	TURIN MASCOT B-/SR1/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	2	123 lb	54.0	1-1/2
8	7	VILLA FIONN B S De Sousa · P F Yiu	S De Sousa	P F Yiu	8	120 lb	12.0	2-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick STAR CONTACT (39.5%) finished 5th — the winner VIVA HUNTER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	STAR CONTACT	39.5%	2.53	5	1.8
2	1	MEANINGFUL STAR	19.6%	5.10	2	3.8
3	7	VILLA FIONN	12.0%	8.36	8	12.0
4	8	VIVA HUNTER	9.1%	10.94	1	6.9
5	3	SAVVY KINGMAN	7.3%	13.75	6	16.0
6	6	UP AND UP	6.6%	15.26	4	16.0
7	2	WINNING DRAGON	4.6%	21.89	3	22.0
8	5	TURIN MASCOT	1.3%	74.20	7	54.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 69.5

PLACE

1 13.5

2 40.5

8 19

QUINELLA

1,8 126.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 101

1,8 34.5

2,8 150

FORECAST

8,1 289

TIERCE

8,1,2 3,957

TRIO

1,2,8 704

FIRST 4

1,2,6,8 1,336

QUARTET

8,1,2,6 27,732

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,10/1,2,8 95,788

2ND DOUBLE

9/1 32

9/8 347

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 35

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