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Happy Valley · 2023-04-19 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HIGH RISE SOLDIER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by HD, with TRAVEL GOLF second and SURE JOYFUL third. The 2.2 favourite GLORY BO BO finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 6.9 HD
2 4 TRAVEL GOLF TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 9 16.0 HD
3 10 SURE JOYFUL V R Maia · P F Yiu 7 14.0 1/2
4 9 GLORY BO BO B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 2.2 3/4
5 2 AWESOME TREASURE H/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 6 15.0 1-3/4
6 7 GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT M F Poon · K L Man 11 30.0 2
7 5 CHEER FOR SOUTH K Teetan · F C Lor 12 51.0 2-3/4
8 11 VAMOS H A Badel · D J Hall 8 9.7 3
9 8 PLENTIFUL H/XB A Hamelin · P C Ng 4 64.0 4-3/4
10 3 SPEEDY SMARTIE TT C L Chau · T P Yung 3 8.9 7
11 6 EQUILIBRIUM TURBO B/TT L Hewitson · R Gibson 2 9.7 9-1/4
12 12 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 10 34.0 25-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIGH RISE SOLDIER2. TRAVEL GOLF+0.2L3. SURE JOYFUL+0.5L4. GLORY BO BO+0.75L5. AWESOME TREASURE+1.75L6. GOLDEN LUCK+2L7. CHEER FOR SOUTH+2.75L8. VAMOS+3L9. PLENTIFUL+4.75L10. SPEEDY SMARTIE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GLORY BO BO (26.9%) finished 4th — the winner HIGH RISE SOLDIER was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 GLORY BO BO 26.9% 3.72 4
2 3 SPEEDY SMARTIE 18.1% 5.53 10
3 6 EQUILIBRIUM TURBO 14.4% 6.93 11
4 2 AWESOME TREASURE 8.1% 12.32 5
5 10 SURE JOYFUL 6.4% 15.66 3
6 11 VAMOS 5.4% 18.45 8
7 7 GOLDEN LUCK 4.1% 24.18 6
8 4 TRAVEL GOLF 4.1% 24.51 2
9 8 PLENTIFUL 3.5% 28.97 9
10 1 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 3.4% 29.77 1
11 12 JIANGXI STAMINA 3.1% 32.64 12
12 5 CHEER FOR SOUTH 2.6% 38.96 7
GLORY BO BOSPEEDY SMARTIEEQUILIBRIUM TURBOAWESOME TREASURESURE JOYFULVAMOSGOLDEN LUCKTRAVEL GOLFPLENTIFULHIGH RISE SOLDIER — wonJIANGXI STAMINACHEER FOR SOUTH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 69

PLACE

1 19

4 50

10 36

QUINELLA

1,4 426.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 125.5

1,10 142.5

4,10 235

FORECAST

1,4 603

TIERCE

1,4,10 12,566

TRIO

1,4,10 2,061

FIRST 4

1,4,9,10 1,114

QUARTET

1,4,10,9 36,898

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE

8/1 412

8/4 144