Sha Tin · 2023-05-10 · 19:16
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-10 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SMART FOLKS, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C W Chang, won by 2-1/4, with ACA POWER second and STARRY NIGHT third. The 4.9 favourite ACA POWER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SMART FOLKS B/SR 1.08.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 3 | 5.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | ACA POWER CP H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 5 | 4.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | STARRY NIGHT B-/CP2/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 2 | 5.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | DASHING GENIUS TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 10 | 29.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | HANDSOME GUYS B/XB/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 8.7 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | GLORIOUS LOVER B C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 9 | 21.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | M M NEBULA B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 6.4 | 8-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | FINGERS CROSSED H/P1/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 8 | 9.8 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | LE PLUS VITE H-/PC-/XB/CP2 K H Chan · P C Ng | K H Chan | P C Ng | 1 | 45.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | LITTLE PLAYER B-/XB/PC1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 12 | 20.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | LUCK STAR B Avdulla · T P Yung | B Avdulla | T P Yung | 6 | 9.8 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 11 | 36.0 | 19-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | STARRY NIGHT | 23.5% | 4.26 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | SMART FOLKS | 15.2% | 6.58 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | LITTLE PLAYER | 14.6% | 6.84 | 10 |
| 4 | 5 | ACA POWER | 11.8% | 8.49 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | HANDSOME GUYS | 7.9% | 12.63 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | M M NEBULA | 7.0% | 14.23 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 5.4% | 18.59 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | LUCK STAR | 5.2% | 19.18 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | FINGERS CROSSED | 3.1% | 31.98 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 2.6% | 38.89 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | DASHING GENIUS | 2.0% | 50.68 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | LE PLUS VITE | 1.7% | 57.34 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 52.5
PLACE
2 23
4 16.5
5 17.5
QUINELLA
4,5 90
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 64.5
2,5 55
4,5 34
FORECAST
4,5 160
TIERCE
4,5,2 786
TRIO
2,4,5 162
FIRST 4
2,4,5,12 1,199
QUARTET
4,5,2,12 16,248
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 25.5
A3 —
A2 —