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Sha Tin · 2023-05-10 · 21:46

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GUMMY GUMMY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with MARK THE MOMENT second and LIGHTNING BOLT third. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.07.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 GUMMY GUMMY B 1.07.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 4 1.5 3/4
2 3 MARK THE MOMENT V/TT E C W Wong · P C Ng 11 16.0 3/4
3 4 LIGHTNING BOLT TT H Bowman · C S Shum 9 14.0 1-1/4
4 7 CZARSON B K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 15.0 1-1/4
5 6 MAN STAR V K C Leung · K H Ting 3 8.0 2-1/2
6 9 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 20.0 3
7 1 WINNING ICEY TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 1 10.0 4
8 11 ELON E/P A Badel · J Size 10 20.0 6-3/4
9 8 FLYING DRAGON V/XB H Bentley · C H Yip 8 56.0 7
10 10 BEATO B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 128.0 9-1/4
11 2 CLASSIC UNICORN P/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 2 51.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GUMMY GUMMY2. MARK THE MOMENT+0.75L3. LIGHTNING BOLT+1.25L4. CZARSON+1.25L5. MAN STAR+2.5L6. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+3L7. WINNING ICEY+4L8. ELON+6.75L9. FLYING DRAGON+7L10. BEATO+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GUMMY GUMMY (29.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 GUMMY GUMMY 29.7% 3.37 1
2 1 WINNING ICEY 22.2% 4.50 7
3 7 CZARSON 12.2% 8.22 4
4 4 LIGHTNING BOLT 8.7% 11.44 3
5 3 MARK THE MOMENT 6.1% 16.41 2
6 9 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 5.6% 17.78 6
7 6 MAN STAR 4.4% 22.67 5
8 11 ELON 3.8% 26.27 8
9 2 CLASSIC UNICORN 2.7% 36.90 11
10 10 BEATO 2.3% 43.32 10
11 8 FLYING DRAGON 2.2% 45.86 9
GUMMY GUMMY — wonWINNING ICEYCZARSONLIGHTNING BOLTMARK THE MOMENTEVERYONE'S VICTORYMAN STARELONCLASSIC UNICORNBEATOFLYING DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 15.5

PLACE

3 38

4 29

5 10.1

QUINELLA

3,5 111

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 176.5

3,5 48.5

4,5 37

FORECAST

5,3 180

TIERCE

5,3,4 904

TRIO

3,4,5 243

FIRST 4

3,4,5,7 670

QUARTET

5,3,4,7 5,740

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 15.5

A2

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,7/3,4,5 28,347

5TH DOUBLE

4/3 303

4/5 262.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,8,9/3,4,7/3,4,5 1,307,324

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,8,9/3,4,7/Any Combination 3,786