Sha Tin · 2023-05-10 · 20:17
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-10 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LUCKY VICTOR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by K H Ting, won by 2-3/4, with EL VALIENTE second and WIN WIN CHARITY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.5 favourite COLOURFUL BARON finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LUCKY VICTOR Wire to wire B/TT 1.38.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · K H Ting | Y L Chung | K H Ting | 1 | 7.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 13 | 7.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | WIN WIN CHARITY B/TT B Avdulla · K W Lui | B Avdulla | K W Lui | 4 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | COLOURFUL BARON B/TT Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 7 | 4.5 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | CHIRON Closed strongly TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 12 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | SPEED FORCE Closed strongly A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 3 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | GREEN LASER V-/B2/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 6 | 9.2 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | SEATOSKY V-/CP2 R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 11 | 39.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | GOLD COMET Closed strongly B S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 9 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | SPLENDID STAR P2 A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 2 | 22.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SURE WIN WIN B M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 5 | 12.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | TRAVEL GLORY B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 14 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 4 | CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 10 | 19.0 | 8 |
| 14 | 8 | RUN RUN GOOD B/TT H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 8 | 19.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | COLOURFUL BARON | 19.4% | 5.16 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | EL VALIENTE | 16.6% | 6.04 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | SPEED FORCE | 12.7% | 7.87 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | GOLD COMET | 7.4% | 13.51 | 9 |
| 5 | 5 | GREEN LASER | 7.0% | 14.21 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | SURE WIN WIN | 6.3% | 15.88 | 11 |
| 7 | 4 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 6.3% | 15.91 | 13 |
| 8 | 8 | RUN RUN GOOD | 4.9% | 20.56 | 14 |
| 9 | 1 | CHIRON | 4.5% | 22.13 | 5 |
| 10 | 14 | SPLENDID STAR | 3.8% | 26.37 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | TRAVEL GLORY | 3.5% | 28.93 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | LUCKY VICTOR | 3.1% | 31.88 | 1 |
| 13 | 9 | WIN WIN CHARITY | 2.4% | 41.34 | 3 |
| 14 | 6 | SEATOSKY | 2.2% | 46.18 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 76
PLACE
3 24.5
7 33
9 69.5
QUINELLA
3,7 363.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 122.5
3,9 275.5
7,9 335.5
FORECAST
7,3 764
TIERCE
7,3,9 16,378
TRIO
3,7,9 3,474
FIRST 4
2,3,7,9 2,057
QUARTET
7,3,9,2 58,719
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/3 114.5
2/7 534
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 16