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Sha Tin · 2023-05-10 · 22:18

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-10 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ERIMO, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 4, with ADEFILL second and NORDIC STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.37.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ERIMO Closed strongly PC 1.37.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 5 4.8 4
2 4 ADEFILL Closed strongly CP K Teetan · P F Yiu 11 4.8 4
3 6 NORDIC STAR Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 12 49.0 4-1/2
4 2 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 13 11.0 4-3/4
5 1 FIERY DIAMOND C L Chau · T P Yung 9 18.0 4-3/4
6 8 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D J Hall 14 11.0 5-1/2
7 12 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT C Wong · K W Lui 7 25.0 5-1/2
8 10 BEAR SLAM H Bentley · C W Chang 3 25.0 5-3/4
9 14 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 4 8.9 5-3/4
10 5 VIVA HUNTER TT M Chadwick · K L Man 2 7.0 6
11 13 ATOMIC BEAUTY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 80.0 8-1/2
12 9 CAN'T GO WONG CP2/TT2 S De Sousa · F C Lor 6 8.7 10-3/4
13 7 INTREPID WINNER B R Maia · A T Millard 1 21.0 11-3/4
14 11 PEGASUS HERO B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 8 23.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ERIMO2. ADEFILL+4L3. NORDIC STAR+4.5L4. PERFECT TEAM+4.75L5. FIERY DIAMOND+4.75L6. MALDIVES+5.5L7. SKYEY SUPREME+5.5L8. BEAR SLAM+5.75L9. YES WE CAN+5.75L10. VIVA HUNTER+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ADEFILL (20.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ERIMO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ADEFILL 20.8% 4.81 2
2 5 VIVA HUNTER 12.5% 8.00 10
3 8 MALDIVES 10.8% 9.27 6
4 3 ERIMO 9.1% 10.95 1
5 14 YES WE CAN 8.4% 11.95 9
6 1 FIERY DIAMOND 7.0% 14.23 5
7 2 PERFECT TEAM 6.5% 15.38 4
8 7 INTREPID WINNER 5.8% 17.29 13
9 6 NORDIC STAR 4.6% 21.61 3
10 12 SKYEY SUPREME 4.1% 24.32 7
11 9 CAN'T GO WONG 3.8% 26.34 12
12 11 PEGASUS HERO 3.5% 28.31 14
13 10 BEAR SLAM 1.8% 54.41 8
14 13 ATOMIC BEAUTY 1.2% 81.83 11
ADEFILLVIVA HUNTERMALDIVESERIMO — wonYES WE CANFIERY DIAMONDPERFECT TEAMINTREPID WINNERNORDIC STARSKYEY SUPREMECAN'T GO WONGPEGASUS HEROBEAR SLAMATOMIC BEAUTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 48.5

PLACE

3 20.5

4 20.5

6 119.5

QUINELLA

3,4 119

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 51

3,6 420

4,6 471.5

FORECAST

3,4 287

TIERCE

3,4,6 8,928

TRIO

3,4,6 1,955

FIRST 4

2,3,4,6 5,663

QUARTET

3,4,6,2 107,030

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 24

6TH DOUBLE

5/3 72.5

5/4 13.5