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Sha Tin · 2023-05-10 · 20:46

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 13 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-10 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GALLANT HERO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with MISSION BRAVO second and AMAZING TEENS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite AMAZING TEENS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.47.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly 1.47.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 1 6.5 1/2
2 8 MISSION BRAVO Led early B-/H/V1/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 6 4.6 1/2
3 1 AMAZING TEENS H/P/TT H Bowman · J Size 2 3.3 4-3/4
4 10 HELENE ALLIBOR V/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes 10 59.0 5-3/4
5 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB C Y Ho · P C Ng 5 4.3 6
6 3 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB S De Sousa · C W Chang 3 11.0 6-1/4
6 11 SURREALISM B Y L Chung · R Gibson 9 33.0 6-1/4
8 12 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 7 16.0 6-1/4
9 7 KEEN UNITY B/TT R Maia · A T Millard 11 19.0 7-3/4
10 4 LEGION OF MERIT B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 13 38.0 10-1/2
11 2 CHRYSOS Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 72.0 12
12 13 GREAT BRILLIANT B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 4 81.0 17-3/4
13 6 YEABOI B/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 12 93.0 24

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT HERO2. MISSION BRAVO+0.5L3. AMAZING TEENS+4.75L4. HELENE ALLIBOR+5.75L5. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+6L6. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+6.25L6. SURREALISM+6.25L8. VINCY+6.25L9. KEEN UNITY+7.75L10. LEGION OF MERIT+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GALLANT HERO (33.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 GALLANT HERO 33.6% 2.98 1
2 1 AMAZING TEENS 26.7% 3.75 3
3 5 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 10.1% 9.87 5
4 12 VINCY 5.2% 19.08 8
5 3 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 4.9% 20.46 6
6 8 MISSION BRAVO 4.6% 21.72 2
7 7 KEEN UNITY 3.9% 25.79 9
8 4 LEGION OF MERIT 3.3% 30.73 10
9 11 SURREALISM 2.9% 34.68 6
10 10 HELENE ALLIBOR 2.5% 39.50 4
11 6 YEABOI 0.9% 115.05 13
12 13 GREAT BRILLIANT 0.8% 122.53 12
13 2 CHRYSOS 0.7% 147.93 11
GALLANT HERO — wonAMAZING TEENSBILLIONAIRE SECRETVINCYRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEMISSION BRAVOKEEN UNITYLEGION OF MERITSURREALISMHELENE ALLIBORYEABOIGREAT BRILLIANTCHRYSOS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 65.5

PLACE

1 12.5

8 21

9 24

QUINELLA

8,9 248.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 48

1,9 42.5

8,9 89.5

FORECAST

9,8 525

TIERCE

9,8,1 1,698

TRIO

1,8,9 227

FIRST 4

1,8,9,10 2,214

QUARTET

9,8,1,10 39,066

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,9/1,8,9 103,760

3 PICK 1

A2 24

A1

A3

3RD DOUBLE

7/8 52

7/9 856