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Sha Tin · 2023-06-04 · 16:02

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT 1.34.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · K L Man 10 9.4 SH
2 0 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT E C W Wong · P F Yiu 4 4.9 SH
3 0 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 10.0 HD
4 0 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 13 9.3 1-1/4
5 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER Led early H/TT1 C Wong · C H Yip 7 127.0 1-1/4
7 0 BROTHER PEARL B M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 15.0 3-1/2
8 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly K C Leung · C W Chang 8 32.0 3-3/4
9 0 BRAVE AND BOLD C Y Ho · J Size 6 18.0 5-1/2
10 0 HAPPY DAY Z Purton · W Y So 3 3.1 7-3/4
11 0 HAPPY HERO B M F Poon · C H Yip 11 93.0 8-1/4
12 0 SUPER BUDDY B/TT1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 22.0 8-1/4
13 0 WIN WIN B M Dee · T P Yung 9 32.0 20
— 0 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C W Chang — 7.5 2-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-04 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GO GO SIXTEEN, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with DARCI JOY second and STRONGEST BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite HAPPY DAY finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GO GO SIXTEEN—2. DARCI JOY+0.1L3. STRONGEST BOY+0.2L4. NORTHERN BEAST+1.25L5. BRILLIANT PIONEER+1.25L7. BROTHER PEARL+3.5L8. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3.75L9. BRAVE AND BOLD+5.5L10. HAPPY DAY+7.75L11. HAPPY HERO+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HAPPY DAY (27.5%) finished 10th — the winner GO GO SIXTEEN was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HAPPY DAY 27.5% 3.64 10
2 0 NORTHERN BEAST 12.6% 7.92 4
3 0 STRONGEST BOY 11.8% 8.49 3
4 0 FOREVER FOLKS 9.0% 11.05 —
5 0 DARCI JOY 7.5% 13.35 2
6 0 BROTHER PEARL 6.5% 15.31 7
7 0 BRAVE AND BOLD 5.0% 20.19 9
8 0 WIN WIN 4.6% 21.78 13
9 0 SUPER BUDDY 4.1% 24.32 12
10 0 HAPPY HERO 3.8% 26.29 11
11 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 3.6% 28.04 1
12 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 2.2% 45.95 8
13 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER 1.9% 53.99 5
HAPPY DAYNORTHERN BEASTSTRONGEST BOYFOREVER FOLKSDARCI JOYBROTHER PEARLBRAVE AND BOLDWIN WINSUPER BUDDYHAPPY HEROGO GO SIXTEEN — wonPRESIDENT'S CHOICEBRILLIANT PIONEER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 94.5

PLACE

1 18.5

6 30.5

9 28.5

QUINELLA

1,6 298.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 97.5

1,9 81

6,9 153.5

FORECAST

6,1 740

TIERCE

6,1,9 5,625

TRIO

1,6,9 734

FIRST 4

1,4,6,9 1,700

QUARTET

6,1,9,4 45,694

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 28.5

A1 —

A2 —