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Sha Tin · 2023-06-04 · 16:02

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-04 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GO GO SIXTEEN, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with DARCI JOY second and STRONGEST BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite HAPPY DAY finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.34.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT 1.34.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · K L Man 10 9.4 SH
2 1 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT E C W Wong · P F Yiu 4 4.9 SH
3 9 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 10.0 HD
4 4 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 13 9.3 1-1/4
5 11 BRILLIANT PIONEER Led early H/TT1 C Wong · C H Yip 7 127.0 1-1/4
6 3 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C W Chang 12 7.5 2-1/2
7 7 BROTHER PEARL B M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 15.0 3-1/2
8 8 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly K C Leung · C W Chang 8 32.0 3-3/4
9 5 BRAVE AND BOLD C Y Ho · J Size 6 18.0 5-1/2
10 2 HAPPY DAY Z Purton · W Y So 3 3.1 7-3/4
11 13 HAPPY HERO B M F Poon · C H Yip 11 93.0 8-1/4
12 12 SUPER BUDDY B/TT1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 22.0 8-1/4
13 10 WIN WIN B M Dee · T P Yung 9 32.0 20

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GO GO SIXTEEN2. DARCI JOY+0.1L3. STRONGEST BOY+0.2L4. NORTHERN BEAST+1.25L5. BRILLIANT PIONEER+1.25L6. FOREVER FOLKS+2.5L7. BROTHER PEARL+3.5L8. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3.75L9. BRAVE AND BOLD+5.5L10. HAPPY DAY+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HAPPY DAY (27.5%) finished 10th — the winner GO GO SIXTEEN was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HAPPY DAY 27.5% 3.64 10
2 4 NORTHERN BEAST 12.6% 7.92 4
3 9 STRONGEST BOY 11.8% 8.49 3
4 3 FOREVER FOLKS 9.0% 11.05 6
5 1 DARCI JOY 7.5% 13.35 2
6 7 BROTHER PEARL 6.5% 15.31 7
7 5 BRAVE AND BOLD 5.0% 20.19 9
8 10 WIN WIN 4.6% 21.78 13
9 12 SUPER BUDDY 4.1% 24.32 12
10 13 HAPPY HERO 3.8% 26.29 11
11 6 GO GO SIXTEEN 3.6% 28.04 1
12 8 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 2.2% 45.95 8
13 11 BRILLIANT PIONEER 1.9% 53.99 5
HAPPY DAYNORTHERN BEASTSTRONGEST BOYFOREVER FOLKSDARCI JOYBROTHER PEARLBRAVE AND BOLDWIN WINSUPER BUDDYHAPPY HEROGO GO SIXTEEN — wonPRESIDENT'S CHOICEBRILLIANT PIONEER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 94.5

PLACE

1 18.5

6 30.5

9 28.5

QUINELLA

1,6 298.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 97.5

1,9 81

6,9 153.5

FORECAST

6,1 740

TIERCE

6,1,9 5,625

TRIO

1,6,9 734

FIRST 4

1,4,6,9 1,700

QUARTET

6,1,9,4 45,694

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 28.5