Sha Tin · 2023-06-04 · 19:08
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-04 was Group 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with VICTOR THE WINNER second and CORDYCEPS SIX third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.08.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 3 | 1.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | VICTOR THE WINNER TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 1 | 4.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | CORDYCEPS SIX B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 8.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | COURIER WONDER H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 5 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | SIGHT SUCCESS E H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 8 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 47.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | MASTER EIGHT TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 2 | 64.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT M Dee · A S Cruz | M Dee | A S Cruz | 4 | 97.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 47.5% | 2.11 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | VICTOR THE WINNER | 33.4% | 2.99 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 7.6% | 13.08 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | CORDYCEPS SIX | 3.7% | 27.10 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | REWARDING TOGETHER | 3.2% | 31.12 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | COURIER WONDER | 1.8% | 54.05 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | MASTER EIGHT | 1.6% | 62.39 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 1.1% | 93.07 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 14.5
PLACE
1 10.1
4 17
7 15.5
QUINELLA
1,7 27.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 18
1,7 16
4,7 31.5
FORECAST
1,7 35
TIERCE
1,7,4 110
TRIO
1,4,7 31
FIRST 4
1,3,4,7 47
QUARTET
1,7,4,3 304
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A2 —
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
4/1 294
4/7 99.5