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Sha Tin · 2023-06-04 · 18:06

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-04 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FLAMINGO TRILLION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with PROUD DRAGON second and NATURAL GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite LADY'S CHOICE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 FLAMINGO TRILLION Closed strongly 1.21.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 11 5.4 3/4
2 5 PROUD DRAGON Closed strongly V/TT1 E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 24.0 3/4
3 9 NATURAL GOLD Led early SR/XB B Avdulla · D J Whyte 12 27.0 1
4 1 PROSECCO Closed strongly CP-/TT1 M Chadwick · W Y So 9 12.0 1-1/4
5 10 LADY'S CHOICE B/H Z Purton · C W Chang 8 4.0 1-1/2
6 4 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly B-/XB/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 10 15.0 1-3/4
7 12 SPEED FAY FAY B K Teetan · A T Millard 1 9.9 1-3/4
8 8 JOY COMING CP1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 11.0 2-1/4
9 13 ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 14 9.9 3
10 6 STURDY RUBY TT H Bowman · K L Man 3 4.8 3-1/2
11 11 CASA SACRED B1/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 4 133.0 8-3/4
12 7 CYBER PATCH Closed strongly B1/TT1 A Hamelin · P C Ng 7 94.0 9-1/2
13 2 LEATHER VANGUARD M Dee · T P Yung 6 59.0 10
14 14 FIRE BALL H Bentley · C H Yip 13 37.0 18-3/4
0 ATOMIC BEAUTY Y L Chung · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLAMINGO TRILLION2. PROUD DRAGON+0.75L3. NATURAL GOLD+1L4. PROSECCO+1.25L5. LADY'S CHOICE+1.5L6. GOLDEN BULL+1.75L7. SPEED FAY FAY+1.75L8. JOY COMING+2.25L9. ONE HEART ONE+3L10. STURDY RUBY+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick STURDY RUBY (17.1%) finished 10th — the winner FLAMINGO TRILLION was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 STURDY RUBY 17.1% 5.84 10
2 10 LADY'S CHOICE 15.2% 6.58 5
3 12 SPEED FAY FAY 12.2% 8.19 7
4 3 FLAMINGO TRILLION 10.8% 9.22 1
5 8 JOY COMING 8.8% 11.35 8
6 4 GOLDEN BULL 8.7% 11.55 6
7 13 ONE HEART ONE 6.9% 14.45 9
8 5 PROUD DRAGON 5.5% 18.02 2
9 9 NATURAL GOLD 4.2% 23.97 3
10 1 PROSECCO 4.1% 24.62 4
11 7 CYBER PATCH 3.0% 33.77 12
12 2 LEATHER VANGUARD 1.7% 57.71 13
13 14 FIRE BALL 1.1% 87.07 14
14 11 CASA SACRED 0.6% 164.78 11
STURDY RUBYLADY'S CHOICESPEED FAY FAYFLAMINGO TRILLION — wonJOY COMINGGOLDEN BULLONE HEART ONEPROUD DRAGONNATURAL GOLDPROSECCOCYBER PATCHLEATHER VANGUARDFIRE BALLCASA SACRED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 54.5

PLACE

3 21

5 65

9 73.5

QUINELLA

3,5 728

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 228.5

3,9 253.5

5,9 768

FORECAST

3,5 1,489

TIERCE

3,5,9 26,035

TRIO

3,5,9 5,256

FIRST 4

1,3,5,9 14,381

QUARTET

3,5,9,1 263,239

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/9/3 2,236

3/9/5 1,367

3 PICK 1

A2 28.5

A1

A3

4TH DOUBLE

9/3 1,323.5

9/5 751.5