Happy Valley · 2023-07-12 · 19:16
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-12 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VINCY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/4, with LOYAL AMBITION second and CLASSIC ARCHI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT 2.16.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 3 | 3.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 9.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | CLASSIC ARCHI Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 2 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | DAZZLING FELLOW Closed strongly B/XB B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 7 | 27.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly B/XB/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 6 | 25.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 5 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | CABLE SPEED Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 9 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | BARON ZEE Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 8 | 33.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | YEE CHEONG BRAVE B/XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 28.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | HELENE ALLIBOR V/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 4 | 3.3 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | SHINY TWO B/XB H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 12 | 89.0 | 43-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | SINGAPORE SPIRIT Led early B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 11 | 54.0 | 43-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | VINCY | 21.1% | 4.75 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | CLASSIC ARCHI | 21.0% | 4.77 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | FORTUNE TRIPLE | 14.0% | 7.14 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | HELENE ALLIBOR | 9.6% | 10.39 | 10 |
| 5 | 6 | LOYAL AMBITION | 9.3% | 10.76 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | YEE CHEONG BRAVE | 6.1% | 16.45 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | CABLE SPEED | 4.8% | 20.97 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | BARON ZEE | 4.0% | 25.04 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | DAZZLING FELLOW | 3.9% | 25.64 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | SINGAPORE SPIRIT | 2.7% | 37.72 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | JOLLY FOREVER | 2.2% | 45.68 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | SHINY TWO | 1.5% | 68.77 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 31
PLACE
4 16.5
5 28
6 33.5
QUINELLA
4,6 214
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 58.5
4,6 75.5
5,6 125
FORECAST
4,6 350
TIERCE
4,6,5 1,500
TRIO
4,5,6 327
FIRST 4
1,4,5,6 1,566
QUARTET
4,6,5,1 22,649
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
2/4 80.5
2/6 62
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A3 —
A2 —