Happy Valley · 2023-07-12 · 21:51
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-12 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAMERON, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K W Lui, won by HD, with ZONE D second and SUNNY STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HAMERON Closed strongly 1.49.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 1 | 2.3 | HD |
| 2 | 2 | ZONE D Closed strongly TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 12 | 43.0 | HD |
| 3 | 3 | SUNNY STAR Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | MAJESTIC VICTORY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 9.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | DARCI JOY B/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 5 | 32.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 9 | 46.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | UP AND UP TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 10 | 28.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 11 | 6.2 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | RED MAJESTY Led early B-/CP2/TT K H Chan · D A Hayes | K H Chan | D A Hayes | 4 | 57.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 8 | ABOVE B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 3 | 22.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | JUMBO FORTUNE XB Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 2 | 8.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | YOUNG BRILLIANT B H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 8 | 6.6 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HAMERON | 20.8% | 4.81 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 15.9% | 6.30 | 11 |
| 3 | 8 | ABOVE | 9.6% | 10.45 | 10 |
| 4 | 9 | YOUNG BRILLIANT | 9.0% | 11.12 | 12 |
| 5 | 7 | S J TOURBILLON | 7.6% | 13.13 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | DARCI JOY | 7.4% | 13.50 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | MAJESTIC VICTORY | 7.1% | 13.99 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | SUNNY STAR | 6.3% | 15.88 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | UP AND UP | 5.3% | 18.72 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | ZONE D | 4.6% | 21.95 | 2 |
| 11 | 1 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 4.2% | 24.09 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | RED MAJESTY | 2.3% | 43.70 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 23
PLACE
2 80
3 39
5 13.5
QUINELLA
2,5 538.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 619.5
2,5 185.5
3,5 86
FORECAST
5,2 616
TIERCE
5,2,3 5,614
TRIO
2,3,5 1,969
FIRST 4
2,3,5,11 3,579
QUARTET
5,2,3,11 43,652
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,8/2,3,5 146,397
6TH DOUBLE
8/2 375
8/5 165.5
TRIPLE TRIO
4,6,9/2,7,8/2,3,5 3,134,882
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,6,9/2,7,8/Any Combination 1,451