Happy Valley · 2023-07-12 · 19:46
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOY COMING, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with WIND SPEEDER second and CHARMING STEED third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | JOY COMING CP/TT 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 6 | 3.4 | SH |
| 2 | 9 | WIND SPEEDER Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 2 | 5.6 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | CHARMING STEED TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 3 | 5.2 | N |
| 4 | 3 | RED DESERT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 10 | 23.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | MR VALIANT A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 8 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | LORIZ B B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 9 | 18.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | TRUST ME H Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 5 | 9.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | FLAMING PASSION H/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 4 | 8.2 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | INNO TECH WINNER B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 56.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | COMPASSION SUPER XB/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 11 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 12 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | EASY TWO H1/P1/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 7 | 110.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CHARMING STEED | 16.7% | 6.00 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | FLAMING PASSION | 14.5% | 6.90 | 8 |
| 3 | 9 | WIND SPEEDER | 14.5% | 6.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | TRUST ME | 12.9% | 7.75 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | JOY COMING | 12.3% | 8.13 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 | COMPASSION SUPER | 6.8% | 14.62 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK | 6.8% | 14.81 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | MR VALIANT | 5.6% | 17.92 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | RED DESERT | 4.3% | 23.14 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | LORIZ | 2.4% | 41.84 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | INNO TECH WINNER | 2.3% | 43.17 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | EASY TWO | 0.9% | 107.24 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 34
PLACE
5 16.5
9 24
11 15.5
QUINELLA
5,9 105.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 44.5
5,11 42
9,11 63.5
FORECAST
5,9 187
TIERCE
5,9,11 632
TRIO
5,9,11 157
FIRST 4
3,5,9,11 887
QUARTET
5,9,11,3 10,209
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,6/5,9,11 3,093
2ND DOUBLE
4/5 135
4/9 31
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A3 —
A2 —