Happy Valley · 2023-07-12 · 21:21
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TOGEPI, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with ONE FOR ALL second and HEARTY WISH third. The 4.0 favourite TRAVEL GOLF finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | TOGEPI B 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A T Millard | H Bowman | A T Millard | 11 | 5.9 | N |
| 2 | 2 | ONE FOR ALL B/TT Y L Chung · R Gibson | Y L Chung | R Gibson | 8 | 7.8 | N |
| 3 | 7 | HEARTY WISH B/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | TRAVEL GOLF TT H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 3 | 4.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | LYRICAL MOTION TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 7 | 57.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | HERO STAR XB1/TT B Avdulla · K L Man | B Avdulla | K L Man | 1 | 9.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | JUNEAU FLASH P K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 12 | 9.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | SURE JOYFUL V-/PC1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 2 | 4.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | TELECOM SPIRIT B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 6 | 47.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 10 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | AESTHETICISM CP C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 5 | 16.0 | 5 |
| — | 0 | MULTIMORE H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | — | — | — |
| — | 11 | CHEONG FAT Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | TOGEPI | 16.8% | 5.96 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | JUNEAU FLASH | 13.3% | 7.51 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | ONE FOR ALL | 12.6% | 7.96 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | HEARTY WISH | 12.3% | 8.14 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | SURE JOYFUL | 8.6% | 11.61 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | TRAVEL GOLF | 7.3% | 13.76 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | FORTUNE CARRIER | 7.1% | 14.12 | 10 |
| 8 | 6 | AESTHETICISM | 6.6% | 15.19 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | TELECOM SPIRIT | 6.0% | 16.67 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | LYRICAL MOTION | 6.0% | 16.75 | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | HERO STAR | 3.5% | 28.21 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 59
PLACE
2 28
7 34
8 20
QUINELLA
2,8 202.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 103
2,8 72.5
7,8 112.5
FORECAST
8,2 399
TIERCE
8,2,7 3,243
TRIO
2,7,8 665
FIRST 4
2,4,7,8 238
2,7,8,10 2,454
QUARTET
8,2,7,4 5,969
8,2,7,10 36,886
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 20
5TH DOUBLE
9/2 68
9/8 550.5