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Happy Valley · 2023-07-12 · 21:21

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TOGEPI B 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A T Millard 11 5.9 N
2 0 ONE FOR ALL B/TT Y L Chung · R Gibson 8 7.8 N
3 0 HEARTY WISH B/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 4 12.0 1-1/2
4 0 TRAVEL GOLF TT H W Lai · C H Yip 3 4.0 2
4 0 LYRICAL MOTION TT L Hewitson · W Y So 7 57.0 2
6 0 HERO STAR XB1/TT B Avdulla · K L Man 1 9.4 2-1/2
7 0 JUNEAU FLASH P K Teetan · J Size 12 9.7 2-1/2
9 0 TELECOM SPIRIT B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 6 47.0 4-1/4
10 0 FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 10 22.0 4-3/4
— 0 MULTIMORE H T Mo · T P Yung — — —
— 0 AESTHETICISM CP C L Chau · P C Ng — 16.0 5
— 0 SURE JOYFUL V-/PC1 M F Poon · P F Yiu — 4.2 3-1/4
— 0 CHEONG FAT Z Purton · L Ho — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TOGEPI, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with ONE FOR ALL second and HEARTY WISH third. The 4.0 favourite TRAVEL GOLF finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOGEPI—2. ONE FOR ALL+0.05L3. HEARTY WISH+1.5L4. TRAVEL GOLF+2L4. LYRICAL MOTION+2L6. HERO STAR+2.5L7. JUNEAU FLASH+2.5L9. TELECOM SPIRIT+4.25L10. FORTUNE CARRIER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TOGEPI (16.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TOGEPI 16.8% 5.96 1
2 0 JUNEAU FLASH 13.3% 7.51 7
3 0 ONE FOR ALL 12.6% 7.96 2
4 0 HEARTY WISH 12.3% 8.14 3
5 0 SURE JOYFUL 8.6% 11.61 —
6 0 TRAVEL GOLF 7.3% 13.76 4
7 0 FORTUNE CARRIER 7.1% 14.12 10
8 0 AESTHETICISM 6.6% 15.19 —
9 0 TELECOM SPIRIT 6.0% 16.67 9
10 0 LYRICAL MOTION 6.0% 16.75 4
11 0 HERO STAR 3.5% 28.21 6
TOGEPI — wonJUNEAU FLASHONE FOR ALLHEARTY WISHSURE JOYFULTRAVEL GOLFFORTUNE CARRIERAESTHETICISMTELECOM SPIRITLYRICAL MOTIONHERO STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 59

PLACE

2 28

7 34

8 20

QUINELLA

2,8 202.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 103

2,8 72.5

7,8 112.5

FORECAST

8,2 399

TIERCE

8,2,7 3,243

TRIO

2,7,8 665

FIRST 4

2,4,7,8 238

2,7,8,10 2,454

QUARTET

8,2,7,4 5,969

8,2,7,10 36,886

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 20

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

9/2 68

9/8 550.5