Happy Valley · 2023-07-12 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-12 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FAST SERVE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Hall, won by 3, with SAVVY DELIGHT second and KING ECCELLENTE third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FAST SERVE XB 0.56.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 2 | 1.7 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 9 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | KING ECCELLENTE B/XB H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 7 | 6.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | ACE TALENT H/PC/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 4.7 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | MILLENNIUM FALCON TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 75.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | DIAMOND SOARS H/P/TT Y L Chung · P F Yiu | Y L Chung | P F Yiu | 5 | 41.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | FLYING DRAGON B/XB A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 1 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | ABOVE ALL H/XB K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 6 | 60.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | MODEST GENTLEMAN P-/PC1/TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 8 | 17.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 10 | 52.0 | 6-1/2 |
| — | 5 | KING INVINCIBLE Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | — | — | — |
| — | 7 | KOWLOON EAST STAR K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FAST SERVE | 32.7% | 3.06 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | ACE TALENT | 26.3% | 3.80 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | KING ECCELLENTE | 8.4% | 11.93 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | FLYING DRAGON | 7.0% | 14.37 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 6.6% | 15.15 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 5.3% | 18.79 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | SAVVY DELIGHT | 4.8% | 20.87 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | DIAMOND SOARS | 3.9% | 25.88 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 3.2% | 31.03 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | ABOVE ALL | 1.9% | 53.95 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 17.5
PLACE
2 39.5
3 11
4 16.5
QUINELLA
2,3 148.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 53.5
2,4 103.5
3,4 25.5
FORECAST
3,2 233
TIERCE
3,2,4 684
TRIO
2,3,4 208
FIRST 4
2,3,4,6 99
QUARTET
3,2,4,6 1,739
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 16
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/2 174.5
5/3,5,7 57.5