跑馬地 · 2023-07-12 · 19:46
第 3場
2023-07-12跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由L Hewitson策騎、K W Lui訓練的JOY COMING勝出，贏出SH。WIND SPEEDER獲得亞軍；CHARMING STEED獲得季軍。頭馬以3.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | JOY COMING CP/TT 1.10.19 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 6 | 3.4 | SH |
| 2 | 9 | WIND SPEEDER Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 2 | 5.6 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | CHARMING STEED TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 3 | 5.2 | N |
| 4 | 3 | RED DESERT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 10 | 23.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | MR VALIANT A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 8 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | LORIZ B B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 9 | 18.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | TRUST ME H Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 5 | 9.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | FLAMING PASSION H/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 4 | 8.2 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | INNO TECH WINNER B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 56.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | COMPASSION SUPER XB/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 11 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 12 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | EASY TWO H1/P1/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 7 | 110.0 | 7 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CHARMING STEED | 16.7% | 6.00 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | FLAMING PASSION | 14.5% | 6.90 | 8 |
| 3 | 9 | WIND SPEEDER | 14.5% | 6.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | TRUST ME | 12.9% | 7.75 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | JOY COMING | 12.3% | 8.13 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 | COMPASSION SUPER | 6.8% | 14.62 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK | 6.8% | 14.81 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | MR VALIANT | 5.6% | 17.92 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | RED DESERT | 4.3% | 23.14 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | LORIZ | 2.4% | 41.84 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | INNO TECH WINNER | 2.3% | 43.17 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | EASY TWO | 0.9% | 107.24 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 34
PLACE
5 16.5
9 24
11 15.5
QUINELLA
5,9 105.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 44.5
5,11 42
9,11 63.5
FORECAST
5,9 187
TIERCE
5,9,11 632
TRIO
5,9,11 157
FIRST 4
3,5,9,11 887
QUARTET
5,9,11,3 10,209
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,6/5,9,11 3,093
2ND DOUBLE
4/5 135
4/9 31
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A3 —
A2 —