Happy Valley · 2023-09-13 · 13:09

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-13 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VALHALLA, ridden by K De Melo and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with VAMOS second and MULTIMORE third. The 2.2 favourite VAMOS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.99

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	VALHALLA XB/TT 1.09.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · C Fownes	K De Melo	C Fownes	4	119 lb	3.3	1-1/2
2	5	VAMOS H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	5	132 lb	2.2	1-1/2
3	2	MULTIMORE TT Z Purton · T P Yung	Z Purton	T P Yung	1	134 lb	4.6	1-3/4
4	7	TSUEN WAN GLORY H/TT A Badel · K L Man	A Badel	K L Man	7	119 lb	45.0	2-1/2
5	4	EASY TWO P-/H/B1/TT K C Leung · K H Ting	K C Leung	K H Ting	8	132 lb	45.0	3-1/4
6	6	GOODMANSHIP B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	2	128 lb	8.9	3-3/4
7	9	HUNKY DORY SR/V/TT A Atzeni · W Y So	A Atzeni	W Y So	3	118 lb	26.0	4-3/4
8	1	FINGERS CROSSED B/H/TT L Currie · J Size	L Currie	J Size	9	135 lb	20.0	8-1/2
—	3	THETA HEDGE M F Poon · K W Lui	M F Poon	K W Lui	—	131 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick VAMOS (24.9%) finished 2nd — the winner VALHALLA was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	VAMOS	24.9%	4.01	2	2.2
2	2	MULTIMORE	21.7%	4.61	3	4.6
3	6	GOODMANSHIP	18.8%	5.33	6	8.9
4	8	VALHALLA	18.3%	5.46	1	3.3
5	1	FINGERS CROSSED	5.7%	17.63	8	20.0
6	9	HUNKY DORY	5.4%	18.41	7	26.0
7	7	TSUEN WAN GLORY	4.4%	22.71	4	45.0
8	4	EASY TWO	0.8%	129.65	5	45.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 33.5

PLACE

2 14

5 10.1

8 12.5

QUINELLA

5,8 30.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 22.5

2,8 29.5

5,8 13.5

FORECAST

8,5 68

TIERCE

8,5,2 199

TRIO

2,5,8 41

FIRST 4

2,5,7,8 178

QUARTET

8,5,2,7 2,033

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99