Happy Valley · 2023-09-13 · 13:52
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-13 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. KOWLOON EAST STAR, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K L Man, won by 2, with CIRCUIT SEVEN second and KOKUSHI MUSOU third. The 4.1 favourite GORGEOUS VITALITY finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT 0.57.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 18.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 10 | 9.1 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 12 | 75.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | GORGEOUS VITALITY CP M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 1 | 4.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 5 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | G ONE EXCELLENT B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 2 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | ACE TALENT H/PC/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 9 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | PACHISI CP/XB2/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 11 | 8.4 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | SERGEANT PEPPER K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.7 | 6 |
| 10 | 12 | DIAMOND SOARS H/P/TT K De Melo · P F Yiu | K De Melo | P F Yiu | 6 | 17.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | STARRY NIGHT B/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 7 | 62.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 3 | 6.4 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 18.0% | 5.57 | 9 |
| 2 | 6 | PACHISI | 12.1% | 8.26 | 8 |
| 3 | 1 | SUPER COMMANDER | 11.3% | 8.85 | 12 |
| 4 | 9 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 10.6% | 9.42 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | STARRY NIGHT | 9.8% | 10.21 | 11 |
| 6 | 8 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 8.6% | 11.57 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | ACE TALENT | 6.5% | 15.45 | 7 |
| 8 | 12 | DIAMOND SOARS | 6.0% | 16.76 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 5.6% | 17.76 | 4 |
| 10 | 4 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 5.1% | 19.65 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | KOWLOON EAST STAR | 3.9% | 25.72 | 1 |
| 12 | 3 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 2.6% | 39.15 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 188
PLACE
3 146
9 36.5
10 56.5
QUINELLA
9,10 1,313
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 843
3,10 1,562.5
9,10 404.5
FORECAST
10,9 3,166
TIERCE
10,9,3 85,340
TRIO
3,9,10 18,485
FIRST 4
2,3,9,10 12,648
QUARTET
10,9,3,2 392,815
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,6/3,9,10 741,091
5TH DOUBLE
2/9 160.5
2/10 1,394.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,6,7/2,4,6/Any Combination 2,160