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Happy Valley · 2023-09-13 · 14:23

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course A 11 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-13 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HARMONY N BLESSED, ridden by K C Leung and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with HUMBLE STAR second and HEROIC MASTER third. The 2.2 favourite HEROIC MASTER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT 0.57.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · D A Hayes 9 8.1 SH
2 8 HUMBLE STAR SR/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 8 15.0 SH
3 6 HEROIC MASTER CP1/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 1 2.2 1-1/4
4 1 ATOMIC FORCE H/XB H Bentley · C Fownes 6 26.0 2
5 5 MAGNIAC V/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 3 12.0 2-3/4
6 2 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 5.2 3
7 3 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB H Bowman · C Fownes 7 12.0 4
8 10 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B H T Mo · K W Lui 5 104.0 4
9 7 AMAZING ROCKY C L Chau · T P Yung 10 52.0 4-1/2
10 11 PARTY WARRIOR H M F Poon · K W Lui 11 80.0 5
11 9 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 2 6.9 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY N BLESSED2. HUMBLE STAR+0.1L3. HEROIC MASTER+1.25L4. ATOMIC FORCE+2L5. MAGNIAC+2.75L6. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+3L7. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS+4L8. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+4L9. AMAZING ROCKY+4.5L10. PARTY WARRIOR+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HEROIC MASTER (20.2%) finished 3rd — the winner HARMONY N BLESSED was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 HEROIC MASTER 20.2% 4.94 3
2 7 AMAZING ROCKY 15.2% 6.57 9
3 2 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 14.0% 7.16 6
4 4 HARMONY N BLESSED 9.2% 10.82 1
5 9 SUPER AXIOM 9.1% 11.00 11
6 5 MAGNIAC 7.9% 12.63 5
7 8 HUMBLE STAR 6.8% 14.61 2
8 11 PARTY WARRIOR 5.4% 18.63 10
9 3 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 4.8% 20.84 7
10 1 ATOMIC FORCE 3.9% 25.88 4
11 10 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 3.5% 28.89 8
HEROIC MASTERAMAZING ROCKYCALIFORNIA DEEPLYHARMONY N BLESSED — wonSUPER AXIOMMAGNIACHUMBLE STARPARTY WARRIOREXPLOSIVE WITNESSATOMIC FORCEHIGH RISE SOLDIER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 81

PLACE

4 26

6 11

8 31.5

QUINELLA

4,8 405.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 42.5

4,8 122.5

6,8 57

FORECAST

4,8 975

TIERCE

4,8,6 2,837

TRIO

4,6,8 316

FIRST 4

1,4,6,8 1,459

QUARTET

4,8,6,1 49,799

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

10/4 1,989.5

10/8 748.5