Happy Valley · 2023-09-13 · 13:09

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 10 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JOY COMING, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with EXUBERANT second and TRAVEL GOLF third. The 5.1 favourite TRAVEL GOLF finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.34

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	JOY COMING CP/TT 1.10.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K W Lui	M L Yeung	K W Lui	3	128 lb	5.8	SH
2	7	EXUBERANT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum	C L Chau	C S Shum	10	121 lb	9.2	SH
3	6	TRAVEL GOLF TT M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	1	125 lb	5.1	SH
4	9	SHINKANSEN H/SR1/TT1 K De Melo · D J Whyte	K De Melo	D J Whyte	8	119 lb	31.0	1/2
5	1	SIGHT HERO B/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes	H Bowman	D A Hayes	6	135 lb	8.0	1
6	2	LUCKY GOR B/E/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes	L Ferraris	C Fownes	4	133 lb	7.3	1
7	5	HIGH PERCENTAGE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung	L Hewitson	T P Yung	5	127 lb	6.3	1-1/4
8	3	HAPPY SOUL CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	7	128 lb	6.5	1-1/2
9	8	WIND SPEEDER K Teetan · Y S Tsui	K Teetan	Y S Tsui	2	121 lb	12.0	5
10	10	SPICY SO SMART CP/XB Y L Chung · P C Ng	Y L Chung	P C Ng	9	109 lb	19.0	8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick HAPPY SOUL (18.5%) finished 8th — the winner JOY COMING was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	HAPPY SOUL	18.5%	5.39	8	6.5
2	6	TRAVEL GOLF	15.9%	6.27	3	5.1
3	4	JOY COMING	15.5%	6.46	1	5.8
4	8	WIND SPEEDER	10.4%	9.65	9	12.0
5	7	EXUBERANT	10.1%	9.94	2	9.2
6	1	SIGHT HERO	8.9%	11.22	5	8.0
7	2	LUCKY GOR	8.9%	11.22	6	7.3
8	5	HIGH PERCENTAGE	5.1%	19.47	7	6.3
9	10	SPICY SO SMART	3.6%	27.51	10	19.0
10	9	SHINKANSEN	3.0%	33.01	4	31.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 58

PLACE

4 22

6 18.5

7 28

QUINELLA

4,7 358

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 59

4,7 127

6,7 82.5

FORECAST

4,7 618

TIERCE

4,7,6 3,605

TRIO

4,6,7 654

FIRST 4

4,6,7,9 3,378

QUARTET

4,7,6,9 75,909

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,8/4,6,7 34,533

3RD DOUBLE

5/4 644

5/7 316

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