Happy Valley · 2023-09-13 · 13:09
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MEGA BONUS, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with SUPER EAGLE second and DENFIELD third. The 1.5 favourite DENFIELD finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | MEGA BONUS CP 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 1 | 8.5 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | SUPER EAGLE TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 4 | 23.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | DENFIELD TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 9 | 9.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 5 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | H Z TOURBILLON TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 25.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | CHARMING STEED TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 7 | 19.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | SNOWALOT B L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 6 | 8.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | DAILY TROPHY TT L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 8 | 118.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DENFIELD | 35.9% | 2.78 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 13.4% | 7.44 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | GOLDEN LUCK | 11.2% | 8.93 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | SNOWALOT | 10.5% | 9.56 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | MEGA BONUS | 8.4% | 11.88 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | CHARMING STEED | 8.3% | 11.98 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | SUPER EAGLE | 7.9% | 12.67 | 2 |
| 8 | 7 | H Z TOURBILLON | 2.7% | 36.70 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | DAILY TROPHY | 1.6% | 63.52 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 85.5
PLACE
1 13.5
5 19
8 43.5
QUINELLA
5,8 722.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 25.5
1,8 72.5
5,8 161
FORECAST
5,8 1,476
TIERCE
5,8,1 3,466
TRIO
1,5,8 350
FIRST 4
1,4,5,8 501
QUARTET
5,8,1,4 22,119
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/5 383
2/8 203