Happy Valley · 2023-09-13 · 13:09
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-13 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. D STAR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with DRAGON STAR second and STURDY RUBY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | D STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.40.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 5 | 3.8 | SH |
| 2 | 10 | DRAGON STAR Led early B/XB Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 9 | 20.0 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | STURDY RUBY TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 4 | 7.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | DURHAM STAR SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 6 | 6.4 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 23.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 10 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | PROSECCO V-/SR/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 8 | 5.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | FEARLESS FIRE B/XB L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 2 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 1 | 9.9 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | NICE BIRDIE B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 7.1 | 4-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NICE BIRDIE | 24.8% | 4.03 | 10 |
| 2 | 5 | STURDY RUBY | 14.3% | 7.02 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | D STAR | 13.7% | 7.28 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | PROSECCO | 12.6% | 7.95 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT | 8.8% | 11.40 | 9 |
| 6 | 3 | DURHAM STAR | 8.0% | 12.45 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | FEARLESS FIRE | 5.2% | 19.26 | 8 |
| 8 | 1 | KASA PAPA | 4.8% | 20.66 | 5 |
| 9 | 6 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 4.2% | 23.56 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | DRAGON STAR | 3.6% | 28.13 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 38.5
PLACE
2 17
5 21
10 59.5
QUINELLA
2,10 421.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 48.5
2,10 145
5,10 194.5
FORECAST
2,10 638
TIERCE
2,10,5 4,682
TRIO
2,5,10 810
FIRST 4
2,3,5,10 819
QUARTET
2,10,5,3 17,017
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
8/2 156
8/10 140
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,5,8/2,5,10 2,890