Happy Valley · 2023-09-27 · 10:47
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-27 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB MOVE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with DOUBLE SHOW second and SMART BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 1 | 1.6 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | DOUBLE SHOW Closed strongly P/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 3 | 4.8 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 7.5 | N |
| 4 | 2 | COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 6 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | MILLENNIUM FALCON TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | HUNKY DORY Led early SR/V/TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 2 | 8.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | SHENZHOU TWELVE B-/H1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 52.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPERB MOVE | 41.2% | 2.42 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | DOUBLE SHOW | 18.2% | 5.48 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 11.2% | 8.90 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | SMART BEAUTY | 10.2% | 9.76 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | HUNKY DORY | 10.2% | 9.78 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | COPARTNER ERA | 7.4% | 13.55 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | SHENZHOU TWELVE | 1.4% | 70.53 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 16.5
PLACE
1 10.1
5 15
6 18
QUINELLA
1,5 38.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 18.5
1,6 25
5,6 39.5
FORECAST
1,5 48
TIERCE
1,5,6 140
TRIO
1,5,6 56
FIRST 4
1,2,5,6 61
QUARTET
1,5,6,2 394