Happy Valley · 2023-09-27 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 7 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.76

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C H Yip	H Bowman	C H Yip	1	135 lb	1.6	SH
2	DOUBLE SHOW Closed strongly P/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte	H Bentley	D J Whyte	3	124 lb	4.8	SH
3	SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	5	122 lb	7.5	N
4	COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	6	133 lb	13.0	1-1/4
5	MILLENNIUM FALCON TT C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	4	131 lb	15.0	1-3/4
6	HUNKY DORY Led early SR/V/TT A Atzeni · W Y So	A Atzeni	W Y So	2	116 lb	8.8	4-1/2
7	SHENZHOU TWELVE B-/H1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui	M L Yeung	Y S Tsui	7	126 lb	52.0	8-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-27 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB MOVE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with DOUBLE SHOW second and SMART BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick SUPERB MOVE (41.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	SUPERB MOVE	41.2%	2.42	1	1.6
2	DOUBLE SHOW	18.2%	5.48	2	4.8
3	MILLENNIUM FALCON	11.2%	8.90	5	15.0
4	SMART BEAUTY	10.2%	9.76	3	7.5
5	HUNKY DORY	10.2%	9.78	6	8.8
6	COPARTNER ERA	7.4%	13.55	4	13.0
7	SHENZHOU TWELVE	1.4%	70.53	7	52.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16.5

PLACE

1 10.1

5 15

6 18

QUINELLA

1,5 38.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 18.5

1,6 25

5,6 39.5

FORECAST

1,5 48

TIERCE

1,5,6 140

TRIO

1,5,6 56

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 61

QUARTET

1,5,6,2 394

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive — US$299 All results since 1977 as data