Happy Valley · 2023-09-27 · 12:18

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C 8 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-27 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MAJESTIC VICTORY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2-3/4, with SUNNY STAR second and PEGASUS GENERAL third. The winner led throughout. The 2.3 favourite TURIN MASCOT finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.49.56

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	MAJESTIC VICTORY Wire to wire TT 1.49.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	7	109 lb	6.0	2-3/4
2	3	SUNNY STAR Closed strongly B A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	8	128 lb	16.0	2-3/4
3	8	PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly V M Chadwick · K H Ting	M Chadwick	K H Ting	2	116 lb	11.0	3
4	1	NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu	H Bowman	P F Yiu	3	135 lb	7.5	3
5	5	TURIN MASCOT SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng	Z Purton	P C Ng	1	125 lb	2.3	3
6	6	PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly B-/H1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	6	123 lb	14.0	3
7	2	BEAUTYVERSE H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	5	132 lb	11.0	4-1/4
8	4	S J TOURBILLON SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	4	126 lb	5.5	4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick TURIN MASCOT (46.7%) finished 5th — the winner MAJESTIC VICTORY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	TURIN MASCOT	46.7%	2.14	5	2.3
2	4	S J TOURBILLON	15.5%	6.45	8	5.5
3	7	MAJESTIC VICTORY	11.3%	8.85	1	6.0
4	1	NATURAL STORM	10.8%	9.27	4	7.5
5	8	PEGASUS GENERAL	6.1%	16.34	3	11.0
6	6	PERFECT TEAM	4.0%	24.74	6	14.0
7	3	SUNNY STAR	3.3%	30.76	2	16.0
8	2	BEAUTYVERSE	2.3%	43.41	7	11.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 60

PLACE

3 42

7 18

8 35.5

QUINELLA

3,7 434

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 123

3,8 202.5

7,8 99.5

FORECAST

7,3 773

TIERCE

7,3,8 5,743

TRIO

3,7,8 1,260

FIRST 4

1,3,7,8 1,635

QUARTET

7,3,8,1 39,856

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

7/3 73

7/7 169

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