Happy Valley · 2023-09-27 · 11:17

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 8 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-27 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MEDIC ELITE, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with EAGLE RUN second and FAITHFUL TRINITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite RIGHT HONOURABLE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.74

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT 1.39.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng	A Badel	P C Ng	6	120 lb	3.3	1-1/2
2	6	EAGLE RUN Led early SR/CP1/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte	K De Melo	D J Whyte	8	125 lb	32.0	1-1/2
3	4	FAITHFUL TRINITY B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	1	127 lb	6.3	1-3/4
4	1	RIGHT HONOURABLE H-/PC-/XB1/B2/TT- Z Purton · M Newnham	Z Purton	M Newnham	4	135 lb	1.9	2-1/4
5	3	REGENCY HAPPY STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz	A Atzeni	A S Cruz	7	132 lb	62.0	5
6	5	PERFECT ROCK M L Yeung · Y S Tsui	M L Yeung	Y S Tsui	3	127 lb	26.0	8
7	8	BRILLIANT EIGHT H T Mo · C W Chang	H T Mo	C W Chang	2	117 lb	10.0	9
8	2	BROTHER PEARL B Y L Chung · C H Yip	Y L Chung	C H Yip	5	125 lb	17.0	10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick RIGHT HONOURABLE (31.4%) finished 4th — the winner MEDIC ELITE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	RIGHT HONOURABLE	31.4%	3.18	4	1.9
2	7	MEDIC ELITE	25.5%	3.93	1	3.3
3	4	FAITHFUL TRINITY	18.8%	5.33	3	6.3
4	2	BROTHER PEARL	7.9%	12.58	8	17.0
5	6	EAGLE RUN	7.0%	14.30	2	32.0
6	8	BRILLIANT EIGHT	5.0%	20.19	7	10.0
7	5	PERFECT ROCK	3.0%	33.10	6	26.0
8	3	REGENCY HAPPY STAR	1.4%	70.58	5	62.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 33.5

PLACE

4 17

6 44

7 12.5

QUINELLA

6,7 327.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 171.5

4,7 29.5

6,7 73.5

FORECAST

7,6 539

TIERCE

7,6,4 3,011

TRIO

4,6,7 532

FIRST 4

1,4,6,7 115

QUARTET

7,6,4,1 5,330

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/6 114.5

1/7 59

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