Happy Valley · 2023-09-27 · 13:17
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LUCKY GOR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with AWESOME TREASURE second and SUPER EAGLE third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LUCKY GOR B/E/TT 1.09.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 3 | 2.2 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | AWESOME TREASURE TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 6 | 10.0 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | SUPER EAGLE TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 4 | 7.5 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 9 | 24.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | ACT OF FAITH B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 1 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | MAYHEM H/P1 Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 2 | 5.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | TELECOM SPEED K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 11 | 31.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | HAPPY FAT CAT PC-/CP1/H1/TT1 Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 5 | 40.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | MEGA BONUS CP A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 10 | 14.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SEA SAPPHIRE K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 8 | 17.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | VANQUISHER PC/XB1/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 12 | 73.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | BAYVIEW STAR H-/B1 M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 7 | 128.0 | 14 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | AWESOME TREASURE | 18.7% | 5.34 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | MAYHEM | 17.2% | 5.81 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY GOR | 16.0% | 6.25 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | SUPER EAGLE | 12.7% | 7.87 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | MEGA BONUS | 9.0% | 11.08 | 9 |
| 6 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 7.5% | 13.40 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | VANQUISHER | 6.0% | 16.76 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | ACT OF FAITH | 3.4% | 29.58 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | TELECOM SPEED | 3.3% | 29.89 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | SEA SAPPHIRE | 3.1% | 32.72 | 10 |
| 11 | 5 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 2.4% | 41.35 | 8 |
| 12 | 11 | BAYVIEW STAR | 0.7% | 141.33 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 22
PLACE
3 11.5
7 32
10 21.5
QUINELLA
3,7 109
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 50.5
3,10 39.5
7,10 109
FORECAST
3,7 134
TIERCE
3,7,10 929
TRIO
3,7,10 229
FIRST 4
3,7,9,10 663
QUARTET
3,7,10,9 8,860
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
11/3 199.5
11/7 131