Happy Valley · 2023-09-27 · 11:47

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C 7 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-27 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAPPY ANGEL, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with WIN WIN FIGHTER second and RIGHT AS RAIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite RIGHT AS RAIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.49.13

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	HAPPY ANGEL Closed strongly B 1.49.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P C Ng	M Chadwick	P C Ng	1	119 lb	3.3	N
2	4	WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B K C Leung · K W Lui	K C Leung	K W Lui	5	125 lb	4.4	N
3	3	RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	2	127 lb	3.1	3/4
4	2	WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte	L Ferraris	D J Whyte	4	128 lb	14.0	2-1/4
5	5	AI ONE Closed strongly H/TT H Bentley · K H Ting	H Bentley	K H Ting	7	121 lb	17.0	5
6	6	NICE BIRDIE Led early B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum	L Hewitson	C S Shum	6	120 lb	7.6	7-1/4
7	8	CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	3	111 lb	9.3	12-1/4
—	1	TURQUOISE ALPHA H Bowman · P C Ng	H Bowman	P C Ng	—	135 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick HAPPY ANGEL (43.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	HAPPY ANGEL	43.8%	2.28	1	3.3
2	3	RIGHT AS RAIN	18.9%	5.30	3	3.1
3	4	WIN WIN FIGHTER	10.4%	9.66	2	4.4
4	6	NICE BIRDIE	8.4%	11.94	6	7.6
5	8	CIRCUIT ELITE	6.9%	14.40	7	9.3
6	2	WONDER YEARS	6.9%	14.53	4	14.0
7	5	AI ONE	4.7%	21.16	5	17.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 33

PLACE

3 15.5

4 14

7 11.5

QUINELLA

4,7 75.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 25

3,7 24.5

4,7 28

FORECAST

7,4 128

TIERCE

7,4,3 328

TRIO

3,4,7 61

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 125

QUARTET

7,4,3,2 1,907

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,7/3,4,7 3,795

2ND DOUBLE

7/4 24

7/7 82.5

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