Happy Valley · 2023-09-27 · 14:19

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 10 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. O'LINER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-3/4, with LUCKY EIGHT second and ATOMIC FORCE third. The 3.0 favourite SOLID IMPACT finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.09.12

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	O'LINER P/TT 1.09.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · T P Yung	L Ferraris	T P Yung	1	121 lb	27.0	1-3/4
2	3	LUCKY EIGHT B K De Melo · P F Yiu	K De Melo	P F Yiu	8	131 lb	17.0	1-3/4
3	1	ATOMIC FORCE H/XB H Bentley · C Fownes	H Bentley	C Fownes	7	135 lb	13.0	2-1/4
4	5	WONDER KIT CP C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	10	130 lb	3.2	2-1/4
5	8	HAPPY GOLF M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	9	118 lb	50.0	3-1/4
6	10	TOMODACHI KOKOROE H-/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	2	116 lb	6.1	3-1/4
7	6	HOSS XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards	Z Purton	J Richards	5	129 lb	8.5	5-1/4
8	9	A AMERIC TE SPECSO A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	6	116 lb	32.0	5-3/4
9	2	WINNER METHOD B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum	C L Chau	C S Shum	4	133 lb	15.0	7-1/4
10	4	SOLID IMPACT B H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	3	131 lb	3.0	97-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick WONDER KIT (25.3%) finished 4th — the winner O'LINER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	WONDER KIT	25.3%	3.95	4	3.2
2	4	SOLID IMPACT	18.0%	5.55	10	3.0
3	6	HOSS	16.3%	6.12	7	8.5
4	10	TOMODACHI KOKOROE	11.8%	8.50	6	6.1
5	3	LUCKY EIGHT	7.8%	12.86	2	17.0
6	9	A AMERIC TE SPECSO	6.0%	16.57	8	32.0
7	2	WINNER METHOD	4.1%	24.11	9	15.0
8	7	O'LINER	3.9%	25.67	1	27.0
9	8	HAPPY GOLF	3.5%	28.84	5	50.0
10	1	ATOMIC FORCE	3.3%	30.51	3	13.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 270

PLACE

1 36

3 40.5

7 61.5

QUINELLA

3,7 1,879.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 144

1,7 373.5

3,7 422

FORECAST

7,3 3,828

TIERCE

7,3,1 35,774

TRIO

1,3,7 2,696

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 3,212

QUARTET

7,3,1,5 126,097

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

7/3 261

7/7 3,076.5

← Race 7 Race 9 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99