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Happy Valley · 2023-11-22 · 19:41

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly TT1 1.40.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 4.0 1-1/2
2 0 LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 9.0 1-1/2
3 0 REGENCY HAPPY STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 7 9.0 2
4 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly Z Purton · C W Chang 9 9.0 2-3/4
5 0 PRECISION GOAL Led early P-/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 11 40.0 3
6 0 FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly B/XB/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 6 35.0 4
7 0 CORDYCEPS ONE L Hewitson · K W Lui 8 7.3 5
7 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 12 25.0 5
9 0 SUPER JOY CP-/B1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 1 6.6 7-3/4
10 0 GET THE MONIES B1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 6.7 9
11 0 NICE BIRDIE TT K C Leung · C S Shum 5 12.0 12-1/2
12 0 PERFECT ROCK M F Poon · Y S Tsui 2 57.0 16-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-22 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SPLENDID STAR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with LOYAL AMBITION second and REGENCY HAPPY STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPLENDID STAR—2. LOYAL AMBITION+1.5L3. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+2L4. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+2.75L5. PRECISION GOAL+3L6. FORTUNE MASTER+4L7. CORDYCEPS ONE+5L7. UNITED ENDEAVORS+5L9. SUPER JOY+7.75L10. GET THE MONIES+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SPLENDID STAR (22.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SPLENDID STAR 22.6% 4.43 1
2 0 GET THE MONIES 13.8% 7.24 10
3 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 10.6% 9.42 4
4 0 NICE BIRDIE 9.7% 10.32 11
5 0 SUPER JOY 8.2% 12.14 9
6 0 CORDYCEPS ONE 7.4% 13.45 7
7 0 FORTUNE MASTER 7.1% 14.02 6
8 0 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 5.2% 19.18 3
9 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS 4.7% 21.38 7
10 0 PRECISION GOAL 3.8% 26.64 5
11 0 PERFECT ROCK 3.7% 27.05 12
12 0 LOYAL AMBITION 3.1% 31.87 2
SPLENDID STAR — wonGET THE MONIESPRESIDENT'S CHOICENICE BIRDIESUPER JOYCORDYCEPS ONEFORTUNE MASTERREGENCY HAPPY STARUNITED ENDEAVORSPRECISION GOALPERFECT ROCKLOYAL AMBITION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 40

PLACE

5 16

7 33.5

9 24.5

QUINELLA

5,9 172

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 104.5

5,9 55

7,9 206

FORECAST

5,9 305

TIERCE

5,9,7 3,761

TRIO

5,7,9 936

FIRST 4

3,5,7,9 1,259

QUARTET

5,9,7,3 24,518

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/5 522

1/9 365.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,7/5,7,9 440,214