Happy Valley · 2023-11-22 · 13:50
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SCOTCH TYCOON, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 3/4, with TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR second and SO AWESOME third. The 2.1 favourite GOLDEN RISE finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SCOTCH TYCOON B2 1.10.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 6 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT1 C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 2 | 30.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | SO AWESOME B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 10 | 57.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | GOLDEN RISE Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 7 | 2.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | SOLID SHALAA B/TT1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 3 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | JUMBO LEGEND H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 6.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | HIGH PERCENTAGE TT K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 4 | 4.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | CHOICERUS B M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 11 | 38.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | WIND SPEEDER A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 1 | 12.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | GOLDEN LINK M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 12 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | MR GOOD VIBES M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 212.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | SIR HURRICANE K De Melo · C H Yip | K De Melo | C H Yip | 5 | 141.0 | 15-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SOLID SHALAA | 18.5% | 5.39 | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | GOLDEN RISE | 16.5% | 6.07 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | HIGH PERCENTAGE | 12.0% | 8.33 | 7 |
| 4 | 1 | JUMBO LEGEND | 10.2% | 9.83 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 9.3% | 10.70 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR | 8.1% | 12.31 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | WIND SPEEDER | 6.0% | 16.76 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | SO AWESOME | 5.6% | 17.94 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | GOLDEN LINK | 5.1% | 19.78 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | CHOICERUS | 4.3% | 23.04 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | SIR HURRICANE | 3.9% | 25.85 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | MR GOOD VIBES | 0.5% | 188.50 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 133.5
PLACE
4 30
8 63
10 100.5
QUINELLA
4,8 1,570.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 374
4,10 600.5
8,10 939
FORECAST
4,8 3,027
TIERCE
4,8,10 69,818
TRIO
4,8,10 14,230
FIRST 4
4,6,8,10 5,833
QUARTET
4,8,10,6 249,595
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,7/4,8,10 1,426,211
5TH DOUBLE
7/4 2,357.5
7/8 1,101.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,3,10/4,5,7/Any Combination 286,594