Happy Valley · 2023-11-22 · 14:55
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-22 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NEVER TOO SOON, ridden by K De Melo and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with A AMERIC TE SPECSO second and BRAVE STAR third. The 3.6 favourite DENFIELD finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | NEVER TOO SOON 1.10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 9 | 15.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 6 | 14.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | BRAVE STAR XB L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 10 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | O'LINER P/TT L Ferraris · T P Yung | L Ferraris | T P Yung | 1 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | GOLDEN ARTIE H/XB A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 7 | 19.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | GIDDY UP B1/H1/TT1 B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 11 | 43.0 | 3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | DENFIELD TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 2 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SUGAR SUGAR B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 4 | 5.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | COLOURFUL EMPEROR TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 8 | 5.3 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS XB/H2 A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 5 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | ZOOM BOOM B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 12 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | NABOO LEGEND K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 3 | 41.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DENFIELD | 23.0% | 4.35 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | COLOURFUL EMPEROR | 16.8% | 5.94 | 9 |
| 3 | 7 | NEVER TOO SOON | 9.8% | 10.23 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | GOLDEN ARTIE | 8.9% | 11.28 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | ZOOM BOOM | 7.7% | 12.97 | 11 |
| 6 | 5 | SUGAR SUGAR | 7.3% | 13.73 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS | 6.1% | 16.42 | 10 |
| 8 | 2 | BRAVE STAR | 5.7% | 17.50 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | O'LINER | 4.8% | 21.01 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 4.7% | 21.22 | 2 |
| 11 | 9 | GIDDY UP | 2.6% | 37.91 | 5 |
| 12 | 11 | NABOO LEGEND | 2.6% | 38.50 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 157.5
PLACE
2 52.5
7 35
8 38.5
QUINELLA
7,8 910
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 312
2,8 311.5
7,8 240.5
FORECAST
7,8 1,771
TIERCE
7,8,2 18,680
TRIO
2,7,8 4,004
FIRST 4
2,3,7,8 5,819
QUARTET
7,8,2,3 152,739
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
4/12/7 6,638
4/12/8 952
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,12/2,7,8 348,708
7TH DOUBLE
12/7 653.5
12/8 92
SIX UP
8/3/7/4/12/7 3,233,591
8,11/3,10/4,7/4,8/6,12/7,8 205,933
4 [C Y Ho] —
1 [C Fownes] —