Happy Valley · 2023-11-22 · 11:15
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-22 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ERNEST FEELING, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Richards, won by 2-1/4, with HAPPY TANGO second and FIRE BALL third. The 4.0 favourite CHARMING STEED finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ERNEST FEELING B/TT 1.10.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 2 | 9.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | HAPPY TANGO B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 8 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | FIRE BALL CP1 B Avdulla · C H Yip | B Avdulla | C H Yip | 6 | 9.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | FIGHTING STAR B K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 12 | 27.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | CHARMING STEED H/P/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 5 | 4.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | NORDIC COMBINED B/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 9 | 7.7 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 11 | 30.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | BRILLIANT PIONEER A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 3 | 6.6 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | EASY TWO B/H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 7 | 40.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | MODEST GENTLEMAN TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 10 | 16.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 5.1 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | MISTER ARM H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 4 | 26.0 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BRILLIANT PIONEER | 19.1% | 5.22 | 8 |
| 2 | 3 | CHARMING STEED | 14.8% | 6.74 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | NORDIC COMBINED | 10.4% | 9.62 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 9.3% | 10.79 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | DAY DAY RICH | 9.3% | 10.79 | 11 |
| 6 | 6 | FIRE BALL | 7.5% | 13.25 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | ERNEST FEELING | 6.9% | 14.45 | 1 |
| 8 | 2 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 6.3% | 15.91 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | HAPPY TANGO | 5.5% | 18.03 | 2 |
| 10 | 12 | MISTER ARM | 4.4% | 22.71 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | FIGHTING STAR | 3.4% | 29.52 | 4 |
| 12 | 10 | EASY TWO | 3.0% | 33.25 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 93.5
PLACE
1 29
6 30.5
7 35.5
QUINELLA
1,7 606.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 130
1,7 207
6,7 155.5
FORECAST
1,7 1,118
TIERCE
1,7,6 9,336
TRIO
1,6,7 1,609
FIRST 4
1,6,7,9 7,944
QUARTET
1,7,6,9 157,902